At market close, I will generate a random integer N between 1 and X+Y+Z, inclusive, where X = number of traders, Y = number of answers, Z = number of unique commenters before close. Any answer that is true about N will resolve yes. Any answer that is not will resolve no.
Please have fun manipulating X, Y, and Z to improve your odds or just to have fun. As long as you don't create alts to bet/comment and any new answers are within the restrictions below, you have free reign. Feel free to add as many answers and comments as you like.
Making answers:
Answers must be set up such that they are resolvable, regardless of the final value of X, Y, Z, and N. Answers may resolve to a percentage if specified within the answer or a related comment made by the relevant creator at the time of market close, but otherwise should resolve YES/NO.
Answers must be unique and can't be extremely similar variations of another answer. I will try to be generous here, but definitely don't do "N < X", "N < X + 1", etc.
Answers should not resolve YES in all plausible circumstances or vice versa (don't do "this answer resolves NO" or "N < Graham's number", but "N < X - 2Y - 2Z" is fine despite its small chance).
Answers should depend on the random value N for some plausible values of X, Y, and Z or depend on the resolution of other answers. Answers should not depend solely on the values of X, Y, and Z. (don't do "X < Y", but "N < X < Y" is fine). Answers based on other answers must exclude other meta answers to avoid contradiction. (e.g. "there are non-meta yes resolutions above and below this answer").
Feel free to reference other markets, so long as all other rules (especially the last one) are satisfied.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ29 | |
2 | Ṁ0 | |
3 | Ṁ0 |
Check out this market for something similar: https://manifold.markets/4fa/nondairy-coin-flip?r=VkxD