Resolution criteria

This is an independent multiple-choice market where anyone can add answers. Each option will resolve independently at the market's close based on the following rules:

• YES: Every answer option that is not the last traded option will resolve to YES.

• NO: The single answer option that has the most recent trade (buy or sell) timestamp in the transaction history at the time of market close will resolve to NO.

• The creator will determine the "last traded option" using the public transaction ledger/history on Manifold for this market.

• Any option that has never been traded (has zero transactions) will resolve to YES.

Background

This market functions as a financial coordination game. Since all options except the final traded one resolve to YES, traders are incentivized to buy YES on various options to secure a payout. However, the last trader (person or bot/api) to execute a trade on any option before the market closes will cause that specific option to resolve to NO, resulting in a loss for those holding YES shares in that option.

Because the "add answers" mode is set to ANYONE, participants can introduce new options to dynamically shift trading activity.

• Update 2026-07-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Bots and API traders count as valid traders for the purposes of determining the last traded option. The term "person" in the original description was intended to include any trader, including bots and API trades.