On 27 November 2024, a coalition of Syrian opposition groups called the Military Operations Command led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied Turkish-backed groups in the Syrian National Army (SNA) launched an offensive against the pro-government Syrian Arab Army (SAA) forces in Idlib, Aleppo and Hama Governorates in Syria. Codenamed "Deterrence of aggression" it led to quick capture of most parts of Aleppo by 29 November.
This market goal is to predict future of operation and Syrian civil war overall. Criteria of resolution are follows: if more than 50% of given city is under control of government based on visual analysis of syria.liveuamap.com on 1st March 2025, it resolves as "Yes".
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Current government refers to the SAA-backed state, not specifically Assad's leadership.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): If rebels form a new coalition government, all cities will resolve as NO since the market specifically tracks control by the current SAA-backed government.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Due to the complete collapse of the previous government, all cities will resolve as NO regardless of who controls them.
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3.00@traders, considering that previous government fully collapsed, I am planning to resolve all questions as "no" after 24 hours. Is there anyone hat disagrees with that resolution?
@225c what if a species of sapient blackcurrents (led by the "current government") suddenly emerges and annexes Syria next February? /s
Clarification: does ‘current government’ mean ‘headed up by Assad’ or does it mean the SAA-backed state?
I’m thinking of circumstances where Assad leaves power, but the Syrian state continues fighting HTS.
I feel this question is targeted towards whether HTS takes the cities, rather than measuring Assad’s political survival.
Also, can you add Idlib as an option?
@OP, for this market "current government" means "SAA-backed state".
Since there are many competing rebels, I choose to frame the questions this way for ease. I can't add more cities. Is there any questions and ambiguities left?
@225c That makes sense, and no issue with the framing. No further questions.
Also, that AI summary of clarification is really cool. First time I’ve seen an automated LLM tool actually be useful.