Will the next Bundestag have a limited size?
14
100
290
2025
94%
chance

This question resolves YES if Germany changes its federal election system such that the federal parliament (Bundestag) will have less than 1,000 members regardless of the vote. If this does not happen before the next election, this resolves NO.

 

This also resolves NO if a reform is implemented but only applies to later elections. It also resolves NO if a new election system is temporarily not applied, for example due to a legal challenge.

 

Presently the size of the Bundestag can vary due to a system of overhang and leveling seats. The minimum is 598 and it current has 736 members. The governing coalition recently announced a plan to fix the size to exactly 630 members.

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predicts NO
predicts NO

At least 5% chance, that the BVG rules against the reform imo

predicts NO

@kottsiek Also some chance that the legel proceedings prolong the implemantation long enough to only apply to the election after

predicts YES

@kottsiek Valid points but I belief their chance lower than 5%. ❤

bought Ṁ32 of YES

Now it's just (mostly?) a judicial issue and the governing parties seem quite confident, that the reform is legally sound. However, the ruling might be to slow to ratify the law before the next election (this seems unlikely tho)

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