Resolution Criteria:

This market will resolve YES if reliable news sources clearly report an infectious-disease outbreak affecting inmates or staff at CECOT before the end of 2025. An outbreak means at least 10 confirmed linked cases or an official health emergency declaration involving transmissible diseases such as tuberculosis, COVID-19, typhus or cholera. If this does not happen by the end of the year, the market will resolve NO.

Background:

CECOT (Centro de Confinamiento del Terrorismo) is a maximum‑security “mega‑prison” in El Salvador, opened in January 2023 with space for up to 40 000 inmates and already holding more than 14 500. Journalists who have toured the facility describe cells filled wall‑to‑wall with bunks, featuring communal toilets and minimal ventilation. In early 2025 the United States began sending hundreds of alleged gang members and other deportees directly from U.S. custody to CECOT, adding to crowding pressures.