This market resolves to YES if Russia launches an RS-26 Rubezh missile at Ukraine before December 31, 2024. Resolution will be based on confirmation from credible sources such as official Russian/Ukrainian government statements or trusted news sources.
1,000
3.00According to Putin today's strike was with a new IRBM (intermediate range ballistic missile), not an ICBM https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c20726y20kvt?post=asset:47fd8644-8538-475d-a3cc-6f5714f0d191
@Paradoxicorn wow, you went way in on YES. Anything I should read or consider to appreciate the risk more?
@Enlil there are now videos circulating at X showing an attack, that looks like involving MaRV payload.
@Paradoxicorn I cannot gauge if this would be a sign that Russia is out of equipment or just really committed. Using an ICBM on a neighboring country seems like taking a cruise ship on a harbor tour.
According to Wikipedia that "is a Russian solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile, equipped with a thermonuclearMIRV or MaRV payload"
Seems pretty massive of a thing to use. Going full Civ Gandhi