This market resolves to YES if Russia launches an RS-26 Rubezh missile at Ukraine before December 31, 2024. Resolution will be based on confirmation from credible sources such as official Russian/Ukrainian government statements or trusted news sources.
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3.00"None of the technology in the Russian IRBM that hit Ukraine is novel..."
"This is a new capability, but this is not a new capability that represents a dramatic change in the way that conventional weapons are developed," he said. "It's a series of old technologies that have been put together in a new way."
The missile was derived from the RS-26, an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, which was tested five times but never entered service, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Lewis said the new design had most likely removed a stage of the booster from the RS-26, reducing its range. He noted that using the Oreshnik with conventional warheads was an expensive means "to deliver not that much destruction".
To me, this reads like this is more or less the RS-26.
@vitamind The RS-26 is a derivative of the RS-24 and the missile fired at Ukraine (Oreshnik) is a derivative of the RS-26.
The question is not whether the missile fired by Russia is either an RS-24, an RS-26, an Oreshnik or any other derivative.
The question is precisely whether it is an RS-26.
@BallonPoste I honestly partially agree with your argument but your example isn't a good one. Whilst the RS-26 is based on the RS-24, they are distinct in that one is an IRBM and the other is an ICBM.
@10thOfficial As the market creator what's your stance on resolving in regards to ambiguity to "variant of", "based on", etc?
@Paradoxicorn what does the paywalled article say? In all other articles of says that it's a new IMBM. Is it really a modified RS-26?
@Paradoxicorn US gov. appear to be leaning towards the missile being the RS-26,
"Sabrina Singh, the Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary, described the Oreshnik as a variant of Russia’s RS-26 ballistic missile. The RS-26 is a 40-ton, solid-fueled missile that straddles two treaty categories." (Forbes: The Mysterious Ballistic Missile Russia Fired At Ukraine Was Created By Sneaky Treaty-Dodgers)
but "variant of RS-26" is kind of ambitious. It could mean a literal variant of the RS-26, or it could be a new system based on it.
At this point there's literally no media consensus as to what kind of weapon it is. It could be an RS-26, or a new version of the Yars-M, Iskander; or it could be a completely new system.
Also, government statements points towards the system not being the RS-26 (BBC: What we know about Russia's Oreshnik missile):
"Hours after the strike, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a TV address, said that Russia had launched a "new conventional intermediate-range" missile with the codename Oreshnik, meaning hazel tree in Russian."
"Ukrainian military intelligence maintains that the missile is a new type of ICBM known as Kedr (cedar)."
According to Putin today's strike was with a new IRBM (intermediate range ballistic missile), not an ICBM https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c20726y20kvt?post=asset:47fd8644-8538-475d-a3cc-6f5714f0d191
@Paradoxicorn wow, you went way in on YES. Anything I should read or consider to appreciate the risk more?
@Enlil there are now videos circulating at X showing an attack, that looks like involving MaRV payload.
@Paradoxicorn I cannot gauge if this would be a sign that Russia is out of equipment or just really committed. Using an ICBM on a neighboring country seems like taking a cruise ship on a harbor tour.
According to Wikipedia that "is a Russian solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile, equipped with a thermonuclearMIRV or MaRV payload"
Seems pretty massive of a thing to use. Going full Civ Gandhi