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MANIFOLD
Will North Korea launch an actual missile towards South Korea or the US?
13
Ṁ270Ṁ601
resolved Jan 5
Resolved
NO

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predictedNO

"Actual Missile" -- I assume that means something like with a warhead, in war, or otherwise not just another test shot or demonstration.

"Towards" -- Does that mean "in the general direction of" or "on a trajectory that would impact"? Something in between? I am not sure but lean towards the latter interpretation.

"South Korea or the US" -- does not sound like it includes Japan.

There are a lot of gray areas and edge cases here. I'd encourage traders not to trade in markets like this without first asking clarifying questions. Results will be bad and you'll be unhappy if anything weird happens.

But fortunately nothing too weird happened! Looks like a pretty clear No to me. Overall I read this question as asking "does something substantially more threatening or actually damaging than the usual demonstration / test launches happen?" and I think the answer is a clear no. Resolving accordingly.