Following McCarthy's ousting on October 3rd, the house is now paralyzed and without a speaker. How long will it be until a new speaker is elected?
I've started the counter from the day that McCarthy was ousted. This means that October 3rd is the first day the house was without a speaker, October 4th is the second day without a speaker, ..., October 9th is the 7th day without a speaker, and so on.
If they elect someone on the 10/09 then a full week hasn't passed, so it would be 0 weeks. If they elect someone on 10/10, then a full week has passed, and so it would be 1 week.
I hope that's not too confusing.
As time goes on and Other becomes more popular, I will split out new weeks. I will also extend the closing time as necessary until a new house speaker is elected.
Update 2023-10-19:
People have asked what will happen if the house expands the powers of the speaker pro tempore. I will apply the same criteria as in this market: https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-0b49bf53ad12?r=enpsaw
That is to say, until a speaker is elected the usual way, this market will not resolve.
1,000
3.00@RickMcCoy For this market type the answer is no currently. Maybe one day they will add something, it would be nice.
Just after I created this question manifold added the ability to create "unlinked" multi choice questions. You can early resolve those. If that market type was available then I would have chosen it.
@zzlk Thanks, that answers my question. It's interesting to see Manifold's system developing dynamically.
@RickMcCoy It’s down to 22% now, so other people agree with you!
I think part of it is that it’s just so crazy to go another week without a Speaker that there’s got to be some chance they’ll get their shit together.
Also, this is in the context of the market saying 65% a couple of days ago and more like 90% for 1 week and 2 weeks put together around the time Scalise was being nominated. So 20% to 30% reflects a total collapse!
@Dennis5a87 I will use the same criteria as this market: https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-0b49bf53ad12?r=enpsaw
@FrederickNorris I think the problem is that the extremists and weirdos would call your bluff and be fine with that. They'd love a dysfunctional house which can't pass any of the legislation that Jefrries brings to the floor and the likes of Matt Gaetz would love to send out fundraising Emails saying, "look at all of these RINOs voting with the Democrats, I'm the only real MAGA guy, please send me lots of money".
The "cut the bullshit" Republicans are the ones who wouldn't want Jeffries as Speaker!
@FrederickNorris also, their behind-closed-doors votes shouldn't ask "who's your top choice", but "who would you vote yes for on the floor" (approval voting) with a long list of names. Tally that up and nominate anyone over 217.
But either strategy requires a je ne sais quoi I'm not sure they have.