When will the next Speaker of the House be elected by? [October]

#118th Congress #Speaker of the House election

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resolved Oct 25

ALL

Resolved

Tue October 10

Resolved

Wed October 11

Resolved

Thu October 12

Resolved

Fri October 13

Resolved

Sun October 15

Resolved

Fri October 20

Resolved

YES

Tue October 31

Updated question with more dates: https://manifold.markets/jack/when-will-the-next-speaker-of-the-h-a67d0b6eae85

Each date resolves YES if the next Speaker of the House is elected by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date, otherwise NO.

(For example, if the next Speaker is elected on October 20, then both the October 20 and the October 31 dates resolve YES while the earlier dates resolve NO.)

Unelected or temporary Speakers (e.g. Speaker Pro Tempore) will not count toward resolution

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13 Comments

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bought Ṁ10 of Fri October 20 YES

Does giving McHenry power to officially pass legislation count as "the next Speaker... be[ing] elected" (especially if it's only temporary)?

@G_ No. His title is Speaker Pro Tempore, which is not Speaker.

More date options: https://manifold.markets/jack/when-will-the-next-speaker-of-the-h-a67d0b6eae85

When will the next Speaker of the House be elected by?

Each date resolves YES if the next Speaker of the House is elected by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date, otherwise NO.

“In a few weeks”!

@MarkHamill Who on earth would be a "Consensus" Speaker??

@DanielRohrer Someone who they consider an honest broker. Any non-election denying R is a start. I still say Liz Cheney is not impossible.

bought Ṁ110 of Wed October 11 NO

@jack October 10th resolves no I think?

bought Ṁ30 of Thu October 12 YES

There might be a serious bug with these new markets. Closing until James tells us what's going on lol.

Ok the bug was fixed. It was just setting the starting liquidity of each answer too high. Reopened. I'm happy to just pay Manifold the relevant amount haha.