Will a Hezbollah missile kill someone in Tel Aviv in 2024? | Manifold

Will a Hezbollah missile kill someone in Tel Aviv in 2024?

Basic

17

Ṁ670

Jan 1

11%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

On 25 September 2024 Hezbollah launched a missile at Tel Aviv that was intercepted by Israeli air defense and resulted in no casualties. This market is intended to work as a proxy for whether Hezbollah will succeed in any further missile attacks on Tel Aviv.

Resolves YES if credible sources report that a missile fired by Hezbollah before 1 January 2025 Tel Aviv time killed someone in Tel Aviv. Otherwise resolves NO.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇮🇱 Israel

#🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

#Arab-Israeli Conflict

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Yesterday Hezbollah rocket injured a few people in Tel Aviv. Quite sure soon they will kill somebody

bought Ṁ25 NO

You won't count someone getting into a car crash during a siren or having a panic attack that causes his death right?

These are quite common.

@Shai No, it has to be from the explosion or from debris/fires/etc. caused by the explosion.

Quite a few people were injured in recent Hezbollah drone attack. I think soon there will be some casualties

Related questions

Will there be a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah by the end of 2024?

+18% 1d96% chance

Will the Lebanese military strike Hezbollah before EOY 2024?

Will Naim Qassem (deputy secretary-general of Hezbollah) will killed by Israel in 2024

Will Israel launch air strikes within Tehran city limits by the end of 2024?

Will Hezbollah attack northern Israel before Sept. 2024, similarly to how Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7?

Will more than 5000 people die in a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon during 2024?

How many people will be killed as a result of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in 2024?

Conditional on a war between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon, how many will die on the Hezbollah/Lebanese side before 2025?

Will an Israeli fighter jet get shot down over another country in 2024?

Will any Israeli aircraft be shot down over Iranian airspace by the end of 2024?

Related questions

Will there be a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah by the end of 2024?

Will more than 5000 people die in a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon during 2024?

Will the Lebanese military strike Hezbollah before EOY 2024?

How many people will be killed as a result of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in 2024?

Will Naim Qassem (deputy secretary-general of Hezbollah) will killed by Israel in 2024

Conditional on a war between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon, how many will die on the Hezbollah/Lebanese side before 2025?

Will Israel launch air strikes within Tehran city limits by the end of 2024?

Will an Israeli fighter jet get shot down over another country in 2024?

Will Hezbollah attack northern Israel before Sept. 2024, similarly to how Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7?

Will any Israeli aircraft be shot down over Iranian airspace by the end of 2024?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules