Will SpaceX try to land a Booster at Boca Chica in 2024?
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Dec 31
88%
chance
Successful Flight 4

Elon Musk says that SpaceX will try to land a booster at some time in the future at the Tower at Boca Chica. He is optimistic that this will happen in 2024 with a chance of 80-90%.


The Market will resolve YES, when:

  1. SpaceX attempts a landing at Boca Chica with the Booster

  2. Booster lands or crashes near the launch site (less than 3km)

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How close does it have to be to "make it to Boca Chica"?

Presumably this will look a lot like RTLS Falcon landings: Boostback / reentry burn keeps the IIP offshore until the last minute; it doesn't move onshore until the landing burn is underway and engines and control loops are healthy. This means there are a bunch of scenarios that result in it crashing "near" the site, for some definitions of "near", that might look more or less like a serious attempt.

@EvanDaniel SpaceX has been pretty open about what they're doing. I expect that they'll publicly state it when they try for a real tower landing, rather than a virtual landing offshore.

@DanHomerick I expect so too! But what conditions will result in:

"A landing is planned, but the booster does not make it to Boca Chica."

happening? Suppose they announce a landing attempt, and then it splashes down offshore. When would that count as making it back to Boca Chica?

@EvanDaniel I changed some things for the definition. The booster has to land at least 3km from the tower to caunt as near.

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