Elon Musk says that SpaceX will try to land a booster at some time in the future at the Tower at Boca Chica. He is optimistic that this will happen in 2024 with a chance of 80-90%.
The Market will resolve YES, when:
SpaceX attempts a landing at Boca Chica with the Booster
Booster lands or crashes near the launch site (less than 3km)
1,000
3.00How close does it have to be to "make it to Boca Chica"?
Presumably this will look a lot like RTLS Falcon landings: Boostback / reentry burn keeps the IIP offshore until the last minute; it doesn't move onshore until the landing burn is underway and engines and control loops are healthy. This means there are a bunch of scenarios that result in it crashing "near" the site, for some definitions of "near", that might look more or less like a serious attempt.
@EvanDaniel SpaceX has been pretty open about what they're doing. I expect that they'll publicly state it when they try for a real tower landing, rather than a virtual landing offshore.
@DanHomerick I expect so too! But what conditions will result in:
"A landing is planned, but the booster does not make it to Boca Chica."
happening? Suppose they announce a landing attempt, and then it splashes down offshore. When would that count as making it back to Boca Chica?
@EvanDaniel I changed some things for the definition. The booster has to land at least 3km from the tower to caunt as near.