Will Trump be found guilty? / Will Trump’s favorability increase?
resolved Jun 12
Guilty / Favorability Decreases
Guilty / Favorability Increases
Innocent / Favorability Increases
Innocent / Favorability Decreases

What will be the verdict of Trump’s current hush money payment trial?

How will his favorability change immediately after the conclusion of the trial?

This market will close when a verdict is reached and announced.

Favorability will be measured by the first Gallup poll after the trial, or 538 analysis. At that time this market will resolve. Feel free to suggest additional reputable polling/analysis sources I may accept and list here.

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Resolved Guilty / Favorability Decreases

The majority of polling comparisons and analysis indicated ~1% decrease in favorability.

@traders I’ve created a followup market for how favorability will change after sentencing.

Morning Consult has published a second report measuring a decrease in favorability and their analysis specifically mentions the trial as a negative factor.


With that and the average reported by 538 I am inclined to resolve Guilty / Favorability Decreases.


I will allow another day for any @traders to make arguments or provide data.

@zaperrer difficult to demonstrate causality. 45 to 43 may not even be statistically significant depending on the sample sizes.

@Cerflerg Causality isn’t necessary for this market, just a measurable before and after change.

The lack of any poll measuring a change outside their polling error makes it difficult to resolve based on any one source. The 538 analysis is based on at least 12 polls which significantly reduces the likelihood of consistent error.

Where is the quote you posted from?

@zaperrer from here; https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/polls-trump-popular-post-conviction.html#

causality isn’t necessary

oh i see. how has his favourability relative to biden’s changed?

@Cerflerg Thanks for the citation.

Of the poll comparisons listed in that article:

3 show a decrease

1 is neutral

1 shows an increase

Considering that the only poll showing an increase was a Yahoo/YouGov poll comparing May 10th to June 6th, and one of the decreases was from a Economist/YouGov poll comparing May 25th to June 2nd (the article does not specify the dates but I think these are the polls it is referring to), I would be more inclined to resolve based on the polls conducted closer to the announced verdict.

@Cerflerg This market is only about Trump’s favorability, not relative favorability to Biden.

@Cerflerg In the context of the election I agree with the article that the polls are showing a negligible change. However for this market I strongly prefer to not resolve NA, and to resolve based on average polling changes no matter how small.

YouGov has measured a negligible change so far.

Morning Consult has measured a 1% decrease although I don’t have access to their data or methods to confirm.

538 is reporting a decrease in average favorability but this may be due to higher favorability in January which recent lower but static favorability has been slowly dragging down the average over time.

Please post if you have good quality polls to share, or access to Morning Consult. Otherwise I will wait for more data to resolve.

@zaperrer YouGov continues to report polls at 41% favorability.

Meta analysis of polls related to favorability (but not favorability directly) show a few points swing from Trump to Biden.

@traders I would prefer to resolve based on a comparison of polls before and after the verdict from the same source with the same methods directly measuring favorability. Please post if you are aware of such polls. I will wait a few more days for more data but may have to resolve based on analysis.

I intended to halt trading when a verdict was reached, but I don’t see how to do that.

@zaperrer When you click on the close time, there's a dialog which allows you to close the question. This time I did it for you.

@Agh Thanks!

Does "guilty" mean "guilty on at least one count"?

What if his favorability holds perfectly steady?

@Joltin_Joe This market will not resolve until a reputable poll/analysis reports a nonzero change in favorability.

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