Will there be a coup in another country in 2023?
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resolved Nov 29
Resolved
YES

If any coup is mentioned in BBC or CNN, this resolves yes. Otherwise, resolve to no on close. Note that Russia, Gabon and Niger (and any state that has experienced any coup in 2023 before Sept.) is not counted.

Updated(Nov 27): The coup can be failed but must happen (actual military force should be used).

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bought Ṁ25 of YES

@yk looks like Wikipedia is discussing whether to call it a coup. If the name of the article changes will you resolve yes?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Freetown_attacks

@GCS The article title will maybe be renamed to “coup attempt”. But I found that term is already mentioned in yesterday’s BBC article.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-67541285

So, in the spirit of this market, the change in Wikipedia is irrelevant.

But, the title of BBC article is:

Sierra Leone coup attempt: What may have sparked the violence

And in the article says:

It was not clear at the time, but the government now says that this was a coup attempt.

I believe this now fully met the criteria of this market without doubt

  • BBC mentioned it as coup

  • The coup failed, but this time actual military force is used after the actual incident.

There is no legitimate doubt that this is some kind of special coup such as self-coup, which will need some discussion before resolve.

If strong objection with based argument is raised, I will reconsider this but I resolve this to YES now.

predicted YES

from the BBC today:

Mr Bah said current and former military officials were among those involved, some of whom have been detained by security forces.Gunmen, witnessed by the BBC's Umaru Fofana in Freetown on Sunday, wore military uniforms and balaclavas.

Addressing suggestions that there had been an attempted coup, Mr Bah said: "We have apprehended some of the major leaders of yesterday's attack and they are currently being interrogated by our security forces. "Once they can ascertain the full intent of their actions... we will make a declaration on whether it was an attempted coup."

bought Ṁ25 YES from 49% to 50%
predicted YES

BBC write-up: Sierra Leone has been placed under a nationwide curfew after armed men broke into prisons, setting inmates free.

Detainees from a number of "major" facilities were released on Sunday morning, said the West African nation's information minister. Earlier on, the gunmen had attacked a military barracks in capital city, Freetown. Residents reported hearing gunshots at the barracks, which are located close to the presidential residence. After the attack, the Ministry of Information declared an immediate curfew. Residents across the country are "strongly" recommended to stay indoors and flights to and from the nation's only international airport have been cancelled. The "assailants" have been pushed back to the outskirts of Freetown, Information Minister Chernor Bah said at around 13:30 (local time and GMT).

bought Ṁ33 of YES

BBC update:

Sierra Leone has been placed under a nationwide curfew after armed men broke into prisons, setting inmates free.

Detainees from a number of "major" facilities were released on Sunday morning, said the West African nation's information minister. President Julius Maada Bio later said most of the leaders behind the attack had been arrested. In a televised address, he described the events as a "breach of security" and an attack on democracy. He carefully avoided calling them an attempted coup.

He said calm had been restored but gave no details about who the perpetrators were or what they wanted.

predicted YES

Don't think this is enough for YES yet - we'll have to wait and see what Bio says in a few days.

@sarius Thanks for the update. I agree that we should wait some more. BBC use the word “coup” in the article but is not calling the situation as coup yet.

Does the coup have the be successful?

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sold Ṁ27 of YES

Thanks for the heads up - did not understand this "This market includes instances of failed coups, as I mentioned Russia where a coup attempt was unsuccessful. However, this time, the coup was thwarted, so it hasn’t happened yet. I prefer to include only actual coups, not mere plots." to mean that the coup has to succeed, only that an actual coup attempt has to happen.

@yk Sorry. Not sure I see a clear line between thwarted coups and failed coups and plots, etc.

Very sorry. My comment was wrong.

The coup can be failed but must happened (actual military force should be used). was correct reply. That’s why Sierra Leone case was discarded then.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Something seems to be afoot in Sierra Leone. Gun fire at a military base near the Presidential Lodge and near the RSLAF Headquarters. Too early to tell, will keep an eye on things.

bought Ṁ50 of YES
predicted YES

@c0m thanks!

This market includes instances of failed coups, as I mentioned Russia where a coup attempt was unsuccessful. However, this time, the coup was thwarted, so it hasn’t happened yet. I prefer to include only actual coups, not mere plots.

If I were to include plots, then I’d need to mention attempts in countries like Moldova and Sierra Leone (see the link for list of the coups and attempts in 2023). However, I believe most people wouldn’t expect those to be included in this market.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_coups_and_coup_attempts

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