This market resolves based on objective proof of life of Benjamin Netanyahu.
Deadline: March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM IST (4:59 PM EST)
Resolves YES if he is seen in a live television broadcast, addressing the Knesset, holding an in-person press conference, or captured on verified live video footage.
The appearance must be corroborated by at least two major independent, international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, CNN).
Resolves NO if the deadline passes without a qualifying public appearance or the Israeli government officially confirms his death or permanent incapacitation before the deadline.
Deepfake?
To prevent early resolution on manipulated media, any video or photo suspected of being AI-generated will NOT trigger a YES resolution until explicitly verified as authentic by independent digital forensic experts or major international news desks.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,845 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,178 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1,169 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1,099 | |
| 5 | Ṁ984 |
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Just leaving this here for posterity’s sake, not going to change the resolution. Upon looking into this press conference a bit more, I’ve discovered the foreign reporters were not in the same room as Netanyahu, so technically it still could’ve been some sort of deepfake performance.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-to-take-questions-from-foreign-press-tonight/
Hi @yeeta,
You can see the full live Q&A clipped here: https://youtu.be/opzHCiq6m0Q?si=WSFV-wabg723zWTF&t=715
Reporters are named, affiliated with major orgs, and asking questions live on camera. These organizations have since reported on the questions asked by their reporters. None of these organizations or individuals have claimed that their likeness was faked.
The reporters include Tom Soufi Burridge, a French Correspondent of ABC News and Richard Engel, Chief Foreign Correspondent for NBC News.
Here is ABC's official reporting confirming their reporter's (Tom Burridge's) presence, visible under the heading "'I misled no one,' Netanyahu says in response to questions about US involvement in Iran war"
https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates/?id=131108492&entryId=131236025
Quoting:
Answering questions from reporters on Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu denied pressuring the U.S. government into war with Iran and spoke out about the cost of the conflict in American lives and the impact on the global economy.
"Prime Minister -- given the escalation of attacks on US allies across the Gulf, given the spiraling energy costs, the high costs in general, the U.S. service personnel killed in this war -- many Americans are asking that question, whether you misled their government into starting this war, and for how long should Americans keep paying the price?" ABC News' Tom Soufi Burridge asked Netanyahu.
@xjp 99% of the time I am in your position, calling BS on these kinds of claims. I hate conspiracy theories, and I also hate the sense that we don’t know what to believe anymore.
But I have to acknowledge that we are in a new era. We are in a situation where these kinds of things can be faked, and there are real incentives for people in power to do so. Credibility doesn't carry the weight it used to.. right now, many of the most effective politicians are simply the ones who can get people to go along with their version of reality.
I made this market with a specific question in mind… not 'will they convince enough of us he’s fine?' but 'will we actually see him with our own eyes in a way we can implicitly trust?' That’s why we are not settling for video releases, and are waiting for a live, verifiable public appearance.
There's also an element to this market I wasn’t really considering when I made it, but which is a very real path to a No resolution: they may have simply made the calculus that it’s not safe for him to appear in public and in real-time for the entire month, hence the reliance on these videos.
Just leaving this here for posterity’s sake, not going to change the resolution. Upon looking into this press conference a bit more, I’ve discovered the foreign reporters were not in the same room as Netanyahu, so technically it still could’ve been some sort of deepfake performance.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-to-take-questions-from-foreign-press-tonight/
@Repliq I welcome your thoughts here if you care to share. Sadly, I was on my own in bringing up such things for the entirety of this market … without anyone backing me up I felt I had no choice but to concede with today’s video.
@yeeta what I suggest to you is to reevaluate your thought process. You seem to have fallen to manipulation on X, hanging on the thinnest threads. I get that being skeptical is good. But if you want to be skeptical - you should learn to be skeptical on both sides. There is A LOT of conspiracy to believe in order for the videos to be AI, not just on the Israeli government capability to deceive, but also on what is currently available on AI.
My suspicion is that under the thin veil of skepticism, hides a deep rooted strong bias against Israel, to the point where you are not actually a skeptic, but the opposite - someone who is more akin to a flat earther - ignoring facts to keep their world view.
@gpt4 I think an incredible amount of scepticism is warranted when it comes to governments with a vested interest in swaying public opinion during war.
@BlackCrusade there is nothing I said that disagrees with that statement, but still believing that the video interview with all the journalists was AI goes beyond the reasonable doubt threshold.
@gpt4 similarly, I think there are a lot of folks who are very rational and discerning but are totally blind and unthinking when it comes to things like Israel’s actions
@yeeta I think being skeptical is important, but if Netanyahu were indeed killed in an Iranian strike, I’d put the odds of Israel covering this up for >24 hours at like <1%.
@bens even Iran didn’t cover up the death of Khamenei for longer than a couple hours (probably as much time as it took them to actually verify it).
@bens considering the market oscillated between 60-80% maybe there was room for a bit more than 1% odds
@BlackCrusade or even 'better,' this market was about predicting how determined the creator was to resolve it NO under any circumstance, and how likely the mods were to step in if that happened.
@yeeta are you willing to make some side bets about the capabilities of AI video generation, once you resolve this and I am liquid again? It seems like you have a lot mana available to be wrong about this.
Possible failure mode for this market:
>Bibi appears in a press conference
>Alive and well
>Reporters see him and ask questions
>There is some glich during the live translation
>/pol/ and twitter schizos claim that the video is AI generated
>Market resolves as NO
That would be hillarious
Reuters
@Reuters
4,12 mln. abonnees•79K video's
LIVE: Israel's Netanyahu holds a briefing as Iran war continues
1) Reuters official photograph of the event. https://www.reutersconnect.com/item/israeli-prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu-holds-a-press-conference-amid-the-us-israel-conflict-with-iran-in-jerusalem/dGFnOnJldXRlcnMuY29tLDIwMjY6bmV3c21sX1JDMlU3S0FGUFhTQw
2) BBC coverage of news conference.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c24d410m3g4t?page=4
3) CNN confirms phone call facilitated by Trump between Netanyahu and Qatari leaders. https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/19/middleeast/trump-iran-strikes-gas-sites-pressure-latam-intl
4) USA Today covers news conference:
5) Fox News:
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6391196543112
6) Hindustan Times:
7) NBC live coverage of press conference
Also:
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2034715399208485218?s=46&t=62uT9IruD1-YP-SHFkVEPg
Resolves YES @yeeta per criteria.
Can’t be faked in advance, he’s mentioning events that just occurred over the last 24 hours, obviously.
No marks of AI generation, backed up by Western reporting (more than 2 sources, including an official Reuters-stamped image from a live attendant)
@bens Thank you for wrapping this W up for us! Exactly what anyone sane already knew was going to happen.
@bens I don't see where this gets us past this requirement:
explicitly verified as authentic by independent digital forensic experts or major international news desks
@Primer Mainstream news desks don't rebroadcast events that they haven't already verified, because otherwise they would be sued into oblivion if they were wrong.
Second, that condition was only if the video is suspected as AI, which there is no evidence of. Wake up and quit being delusional.
@PhantomHazard I'm being sarcastic.
But also: Let's hope nobody says "This might still be AI", because yes, no news desk will "explicitely verify" anything here, but still some people might think this could be a conspiracy. Which is why I had asked about the resolution of this very situation:
https://manifold.markets/yeeta/will-netanyahu-make-a-verifiable-li#9shmn0vtijk
@Primer I see, but I think major news orgs rebroadcasting this event is inherently validation because it demonstrates that their legal teams are confident enough with their internal verifications to feel comfortable publishing it, with confidence exponentially multiplied by the sheer amount of legit orgs covering it.
Also, this clearly isn't a "will I be convinced" market, as the emphasis is on external objective standards and the author claimed in multiple comments that he would resolve based on those objective standards. There's no argument to call this a subjective judgement. If he tries to pull that, then the mods can and absolutely should get invovled.
@PhantomHazard Agreed. I'm trying to point out that "explicitely verify" was a bogus criterion from the start. If this was supposed to be a proper market, it should have said pretty much what you said:
major news orgs rebroadcasting this event is inherently validation because it demonstrates that their legal teams are confident enough with their internal verifications to feel comfortable publishing it
Which wouldn't leave this loophole open.
@bens thank you for these links.
I noticed at the beginning of his speech he welcomes foreign press but they aren’t shown and I haven’t seen any reports from anyone who was in attendance.
The only photo I’ve seen thus far comes from an Israeli, Jerusalem based journalist. An international journalist’s verification could seal the deal on a Yes… right now we have a video that they say was live, and I’m inclined to believe it.. though it could’ve been premade.
There is talk of a few potential AI inconsistencies online but I’m willing to completely ignore them if we can get a non-Israeli reporter verifying that they saw a live speech being given.
I’m ready to say Yes, once anyone can show this was actually live.
@yeeta I think he took questions from several foreign journalists e.g.
@jim awesome.. maybe that journalist made a post about it ? I’m in meetings all day but I will check back in a few hours and hopefully we will have something concrete we can point to to resolve this Yes.
Hi @yeeta,
You can see the full live Q&A clipped here: https://youtu.be/opzHCiq6m0Q?si=WSFV-wabg723zWTF&t=715
Reporters are named, affiliated with major orgs, and asking questions live on camera. These organizations have since reported on the questions asked by their reporters. None of these organizations or individuals have claimed that their likeness was faked.
The reporters include Tom Soufi Burridge, a French Correspondent of ABC News and Richard Engel, Chief Foreign Correspondent for NBC News.
Here is ABC's official reporting confirming their reporter's (Tom Burridge's) presence, visible under the heading "'I misled no one,' Netanyahu says in response to questions about US involvement in Iran war"
https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates/?id=131108492&entryId=131236025
Quoting:
Answering questions from reporters on Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu denied pressuring the U.S. government into war with Iran and spoke out about the cost of the conflict in American lives and the impact on the global economy.
"Prime Minister -- given the escalation of attacks on US allies across the Gulf, given the spiraling energy costs, the high costs in general, the U.S. service personnel killed in this war -- many Americans are asking that question, whether you misled their government into starting this war, and for how long should Americans keep paying the price?" ABC News' Tom Soufi Burridge asked Netanyahu.