Resolution Criteria:
A report published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal demonstrating only a quantum computer was used to obtain the factorization answers for RSA-2048 challenge number.
The RSA-2048 challenge number can be found on Wikipedia:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_numbers
25195908475657893494027183240048398571429282126204032027777137836043662020707595556264018525880784406918290641249515082189298559149176184502808489120072844992687392807287776735971418347270261896375014971824691165077613379859090009733045974880842840179742910064245869181795118746121515172654632282216869987549182422433637259085141865462043576798423387184774447920739934236584823982428119816381501067481045166037730605620161967625613384414360833904414953443221901146575444541784240209246165157233507787077498171257724679629263866373289912154831438167899885040445364023527381951378636564391212010397122822120720357
Update 2025-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Update from creator
Quantum Computer Build Timing: If a quantum computer is built in a given year (for example, 2035), that corresponding time bracket will be resolved as yes in that year. The market would close in 2035 (for example) if that year was resolved “Yes.”
Not Applicable Resolution: The market will be resolved as not applicable in 2101 only if no quantum computer meeting the outlined requirements has been built.
Update 2025-03-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment):
First Option Change:
The time bracket now covers 2025 - 2034
Last Option Change:
The time bracket now covers 2055 - 2100
1,000@FlorisvanDoorn All the experts would be shocked if it was before 2030. If that happens then 2030 to 2034 wins. If the year is 2061 and a quantum computer is not built meeting the requirements then it would be resolved as “not applicable.” The date ranges are based on expert opinion on when a quantum computer will become available.
@Yaqubali I think the suggested N/A resolution is problematic, and I suggest NO instead. If in 2035 a quantum computer meeting the requirements has not been built, then it would be nice to resolve the time bracket NO at that point. And the same would be true of any time bracket.
@Tsunombie in this market type, you cannot resolve all answers as NO. I do agree that a N/A resolution skews the probabilities. My preference would be to rename the last option to "2055 or later".
@Tsunombie Just to be clear, if a quantum computer is built in 2035 then the question will be resolved “yes” in 2035. The “not applicable” resolution will only be given in 2061 if we fail to build a quantum computer. From what I have examined, the system does not give me the ability to resolve a time bracket as “no”. I can only select one time bracket as “yes”. I will research this further. If I have the ability to resolve a particular time bracket as “no” then that is what I will do. For example, if a Quantum computer is not built in the 2030 time bracket then I will resolve it as “No.” I will have to do research if I have the ability to do that.
@FlorisvanDoorn I took away my ability to add further brackets to be fair to traders. I cannot add “2060 or later” as a result. Plus it is also possible that a quantum computer could be impossible to build and a future math proof will be provided for that conclusion. I had to limit the number of potential answers down to a limited number.
@FlorisvanDoorn I have changed it from 2055-2100. Hopefully no one alive today cares about anything after 2100.
@FlorisvanDoorn I have changed the last option to cover 2055 - 2100. And also changed the first option to cover 2025 - 2034.
@Yaqubali You are unfortunately not able to resolve some options to NO early. I know you are not able to add more options, but I recommend that this market just resolves to the last option in 2055, so that that option becomes a catch-all (i.e. "2055 or later or never"). That is simpler to resolve and simpler for bettors.
@FlorisvanDoorn hopefully people who think “never” will not respond to this question. I don’t want to change the numbering scheme to take account of all possible situations which is too numerous.
@ProjectVictory Idk if a classical computer or quantum computer will solve RSA-2048. This question will be positively resolved only when a quantum computer solves RSA-2048. There has to be sufficient evidence that a quantum computer was used to achieve that milestone.