What will be involved in cracking the RSA-2048 challenge number?

Question

* Any machine learning system must be involved in finding the solution directly, or finding new algorithms (in which case, new mathematics also resolves yes).
** New algorithm, lowering the computational complexity compared to currently known algorithms:
- Number field sieve, if the computations  were performed on a classical computer.
- Shor's algorithm, if the computations were performed on a quantum computer.

All options may resolve No, for example if this is achieved by just scaling up computational power. The question stays open until the number is factored.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Quantum computing, followed by New mathematics** and Artificial intelligence* are most likely. See the market for live updates (10 traders, as of Jul 3, 2026).