Before what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?
Basic
26
Ṁ15352050
12%
2025
41%
2027
46%
2030
0.8%
2050
The ARC AGI Prize is a $1,000,000+ public competition aimed at advancing research in artificial general intelligence (AGI) by developing open-source solutions for the ARC-AGI benchmark, which measures the ability to acquire new skills and solve novel problems, unlike current AI models that rely on memorization. The competition encourages a variety of approaches, such as discrete program searches and LLM-based strategies, with the goal of achieving 85% accuracy on the benchmark, reflecting substantial progress towards AGI.
The correct answer will resolve to the earliest date. For example if a solution is found in 2024 then the correct answer is 2025.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2025?
65% chance
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2026?
26% chance
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2027?
65% chance
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
71% chance
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?
83% chance
Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by an LLM?
55% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
45% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
41% chance
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2029?
37% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
46% chance