Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against glioblastoma before 2028? | Manifold

Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against glioblastoma before 2028?

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Resolves YES if the FDA grants full approval for the commercial sale of any mRNA-based vaccine for the treatment of glioblastoma in the United States before January 1, 2028. This does not include emergency use authorization or other forms of limited authorization. Resolves NO otherwise.

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Some promising results in the first small-scale human clinical trial:

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-05-mrna-cancer-vaccine-triggers-fierce.html

I was going to say there's no shot of this even working but DCVax-L made it to Phase 3. But there aren't any mRNA GBM vaccines currently so they'd have to go from nothing to approval in 5 years. That could happen if they got really stellar results, but seems quite unlikely.

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