Will FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against melanoma before 2028?
Mini
7
206
2027
49%
chance

Resolves YES if the FDA grants full approval for the commercial sale of any mRNA-based vaccine for the treatment of melanoma in the United States before January 1, 2028. This does not include emergency use authorization or other forms of limited authorization. Resolves NO otherwise.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

There's definitely significant room for arbitrage across all of these cancer vaccine markets. Melanoma is the only one that has passed phase 2 / has planned phase 3, it is by far the most likely cancer to have an approved mRNA vaccine by 2028.

@vluzko The base rate for phase 3 -> approval in oncology is ~35%, and the melanoma trial got pretty stellar results.

Why did you submit like 349 identical markets and are flooding new queue?

@Micrified I’m half sorry – as you can see, that was it, not going to make more for now – but also a bit annoyed you asked. These markets are the opposite of frivolous. (My hope that they’ll attract information may be naive, otoh.) While I’d be happy to make them in a more concise and flexible way, it’s really mostly because I’d like to see even more scenarios and timeframes covered.

@yaboi69 Approved answer

predicts YES

@yaboi69 I think these markets are great and I'm glad you made them.

predicts YES

@yaboi69 I do think the timelines are a little short for many of them (assuming you're interested in the overall potential of mRNA vaccines for cancer and not specifically interested in the 2028 date) - cancer trials run long because the target is usually survival rates over a period of years (often 2), meaning roughly 6 years from phase 1 start to phase 3 finish if everything goes perfectly and the company moves very fast. Moderna famously moves very fast on trials and mRNA-4157 is looking like it will be an 8-9 year timeline. Maybe make duplicates of the cancer markets for 2030 or 2032?

More related questions