Resolves YES if the Average Direct Asking Rate, Full Service for commercial office real estate in San Francisco falls below $55 psf (per Avison Young) for any quarter in 2023. Resolves NO otherwise.

The preferred source for resolution are quarterly AY San Francisco office market reports. If they become unavailable, the market will resolve N/A.

The $55 psf threshold is a proxy for a “firesale” and a very poorly performing asset group – about a 30% reduction from Q4 2022 $78.18.

Context: All-in podcast, E110, “2023 Bestie Predictions!”

David Sacks: “(Worst performing asset in 2023.) I think office towers in San Francisco; that is some serious toxic debt, 27% vacancy rates and growing as leases roll. I think that a lot of these buildings, maybe virtually all of the San Francisco downtown is going to be owned by the bank soon because no one can eat there. (…) Specifically the office towers, because no one wants to be in those skyscraper buildings south of market (…). There's going to be some major fire sales. Remember, this is the hottest commercial real estate market in the country a few years ago and now it's the worst.