If...

• Trump is the nominee -> resolves N/A

• Win + Endorsement -> **resolves YES if it gives nominee enough of a boost

• Win + No endorsement -> resolves NO

• Lose + Endorsement -> resolves NO

• Lose + No endorsement -> resolves N/A

**If, in the 2 weeks following Trump's endorsement, the candidate's "chance of winning" on the default 538 election probability model

• was below 30% and increases >5%,

• was below 50% and increases >10%

• or was below 70% and increases >15%,

  then this outcome resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO.