resolved Mar 19
Will Silicon Valley Bank be bought by another bank by March 18?
Resolved
NO

Smarter people than I have told me Wells Fargo and RBC are contenders.

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xyz avatar
Yoavpredicted YES at 7%

To be clear, this resolves March 18 at the end of the day PDT.

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahampredicted NO at 17%

@RahulShah they bought a irrelevant small branch.

Gen avatar
Genzypredicted NO at 10%

@MarkIngraham They snatched a ring fenced functional branch connected to a huge amount of customers that compliments their balance sheet. They could accommodate more deposits, so they bought a huge list for $1. Equity of £1.4b, 88m profits.

It’s relevant, but absolutely not sale of the SVB entity as it exists. SVB as a whole had 7.4b revenue in 2022

Gen avatar
Genzypredicted NO at 10%

@Gen Oh I cut too much from my comment- as a portion of tangible equity, it represents about 10% of SVB

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahampredicted NO at 10%

@Gen it was a $1 sale of a failed branch with no deposits remaining

Gen avatar
Genzypredicted NO at 9%

@MarkIngraham I chopped up my comment because it was super long and I really regret it

SVB UK represented about 10% of SVB

Gen avatar
Genzypredicted NO at 9%

@MarkIngraham Saying “a failed branch with no deposits remaining” is meaningless, because the entire bank is failed. Better to compare the highs to inform the difference rather than comparing worthless with worthless

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahampredicted NO at 9%

@Gen we agree it doesn't affect the outcome

Gen avatar
Genzypredicted NO at 9%

@MarkIngraham yes! 🙏☺️

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahampredicted NO at 9%

@Gen furthermore if the branch is in rhe UK, it has their deposit protection which is weaker and even smaller value.

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahambought Ṁ50 of NO

It takes months.

jack avatar
Jackpredicted NO at 52%

@MarkIngraham Not in bank failure situations. Often, banks have failed Friday and been bought over the weekend.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted NO at 48%

@jack Yep. $8 for Bear Stearns and WaMu in less than a week right?

GaryGrenda avatar
Gary Grendapredicted YES at 6%

@jack But the issue is, large companies aren't allowed to buy medium sized companies in the United States anymore, or at least havn't been for the last 18 months.

jack avatar
Jackpredicted NO at 6%

@GaryGrenda This is not a normal merger. The government is actively trying to sell SVB.

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahampredicted NO at 6%

@jack that makes it less likely to happen because of desperation

GaryGrenda avatar
Gary Grendapredicted YES at 7%

@jack The govt is not a monolithic entity. It was already reported FDIC actively blocked (or was told to implicitly block) the largest 4 banks from acquiring SVB. Just because one part of the govt is trying to sell SVB doesn't mean another park isn't licking their chops ready to sue. Bank execs know this.

BTE avatar
Brian T. Edwardspredicted NO at 7%

@GaryGrenda No bank can hold more than 25 percent of national deposits. That's the reason for the restricted mergers. Biden can issue an exception though...

MarkIngraham avatar
Mark Ingrahampredicted NO at 7%

Something similar happened in last crises. LTCM failed in 1998, Lehman failed, they were able to isolate it for a while then a year or two later total collapse. Small numbers will fail then 2025 obliterated

GaryGrenda avatar
Gary Grendapredicted YES at 8%

@BTE I dont think SVB would put all 4 of those over the 25%, if any of them.

Gen avatar
Genzybought Ṁ300 of NO

at what point will this resolve? 1 share from 1 bank? 100% owned by financial institutions? 100% owned by 1 financial institution?

xyz avatar
Yoavpredicted YES at 36%

@Gen If most of the bank is owned by financial institutions aside from FDIC/DNIB Santa Clara. It would require more than just the branches being sold to someone, for example.

Fion avatar
Fionbought Ṁ150 of YES
AlexKChen avatar
Alex K. Chen

Can multiple banks buy it?

xyz avatar
Yoavsold Ṁ108 of YES
xyz avatar
Yoavbought Ṁ100 of YES

Interesting!

Tyler31 avatar
Tylerpredicted YES at 67%

How are you thinking about it sold off as pieces? If most are bought by banks is that still a yes?

xyz avatar
Yoav
xyz avatar
Yoav

By Monday, SVB depositors’ money may be too dispersed for this.

Tyler31 avatar
Tylerbought Ṁ100 of YES

Can you clarify how you intend to interpret “bought by a bank” if there’s any ambiguity, eg if it’s a big financial institution that isn’t a retail bank or if the legal entity used for the transaction isn’t itself a bank but is part of broader banking company?

xyz avatar
Yoavpredicted YES at 63%

@Tyler31 I would count all types of financial institutions listed here, except for insurance company. The latter example would resolve Yes.

xyz avatar
Yoavpredicted YES at 63%

@Yoav I’m using the colloquial sense of the word “bank.”

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Yoav
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