Will Silicon Valley Bank be bought by another bank by March 18?
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resolved Mar 19
Resolved
NO

Smarter people than I have told me Wells Fargo and RBC are contenders.

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predictedYES

To be clear, this resolves March 18 at the end of the day PDT.

predictedNO

@RahulShah they bought a irrelevant small branch.

predictedNO

@MarkIngraham They snatched a ring fenced functional branch connected to a huge amount of customers that compliments their balance sheet. They could accommodate more deposits, so they bought a huge list for $1. Equity of £1.4b, 88m profits.

It’s relevant, but absolutely not sale of the SVB entity as it exists. SVB as a whole had 7.4b revenue in 2022

predictedNO

@Gen Oh I cut too much from my comment- as a portion of tangible equity, it represents about 10% of SVB

predictedNO

@Gen it was a $1 sale of a failed branch with no deposits remaining

predictedNO

@MarkIngraham I chopped up my comment because it was super long and I really regret it

SVB UK represented about 10% of SVB

predictedNO

@MarkIngraham Saying “a failed branch with no deposits remaining” is meaningless, because the entire bank is failed. Better to compare the highs to inform the difference rather than comparing worthless with worthless

predictedNO

@Gen we agree it doesn't affect the outcome

predictedNO

@MarkIngraham yes! 🙏☺️

predictedNO

@Gen furthermore if the branch is in rhe UK, it has their deposit protection which is weaker and even smaller value.

It takes months.

predictedNO

@MarkIngraham Not in bank failure situations. Often, banks have failed Friday and been bought over the weekend.

predictedNO

@jack Yep. $8 for Bear Stearns and WaMu in less than a week right?

predictedYES

@jack But the issue is, large companies aren't allowed to buy medium sized companies in the United States anymore, or at least havn't been for the last 18 months.

predictedNO

@GaryGrenda This is not a normal merger. The government is actively trying to sell SVB.

predictedNO

@jack that makes it less likely to happen because of desperation

predictedYES

@jack The govt is not a monolithic entity. It was already reported FDIC actively blocked (or was told to implicitly block) the largest 4 banks from acquiring SVB. Just because one part of the govt is trying to sell SVB doesn't mean another park isn't licking their chops ready to sue. Bank execs know this.

predictedNO

@GaryGrenda No bank can hold more than 25 percent of national deposits. That's the reason for the restricted mergers. Biden can issue an exception though...

predictedNO

Something similar happened in last crises. LTCM failed in 1998, Lehman failed, they were able to isolate it for a while then a year or two later total collapse. Small numbers will fail then 2025 obliterated

predictedYES

@BTE I dont think SVB would put all 4 of those over the 25%, if any of them.

at what point will this resolve? 1 share from 1 bank? 100% owned by financial institutions? 100% owned by 1 financial institution?

predictedYES

@Gen If most of the bank is owned by financial institutions aside from FDIC/DNIB Santa Clara. It would require more than just the branches being sold to someone, for example.

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