Will Silicon Valley Bank be bought by another bank by March 18?
146
275
2K
resolved Mar 19
Resolved
NO

Smarter people than I have told me Wells Fargo and RBC are contenders.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ1,331
2Ṁ677
3Ṁ589
4Ṁ514
5Ṁ492
Sort by:
predicted YES

To be clear, this resolves March 18 at the end of the day PDT.

sold Ṁ19 of NO
predicted NO

@RahulShah they bought a irrelevant small branch.

predicted NO

@MarkIngraham They snatched a ring fenced functional branch connected to a huge amount of customers that compliments their balance sheet. They could accommodate more deposits, so they bought a huge list for $1. Equity of £1.4b, 88m profits.

It’s relevant, but absolutely not sale of the SVB entity as it exists. SVB as a whole had 7.4b revenue in 2022

predicted NO

@Gen Oh I cut too much from my comment- as a portion of tangible equity, it represents about 10% of SVB

predicted NO

@Gen it was a $1 sale of a failed branch with no deposits remaining

predicted NO

@MarkIngraham I chopped up my comment because it was super long and I really regret it

SVB UK represented about 10% of SVB

predicted NO

@MarkIngraham Saying “a failed branch with no deposits remaining” is meaningless, because the entire bank is failed. Better to compare the highs to inform the difference rather than comparing worthless with worthless

predicted NO

@Gen we agree it doesn't affect the outcome

predicted NO

@MarkIngraham yes! 🙏☺️

predicted NO

@Gen furthermore if the branch is in rhe UK, it has their deposit protection which is weaker and even smaller value.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

It takes months.

predicted NO

@MarkIngraham Not in bank failure situations. Often, banks have failed Friday and been bought over the weekend.

predicted NO

@jack Yep. $8 for Bear Stearns and WaMu in less than a week right?

predicted YES

@jack But the issue is, large companies aren't allowed to buy medium sized companies in the United States anymore, or at least havn't been for the last 18 months.

predicted NO

@GaryGrenda This is not a normal merger. The government is actively trying to sell SVB.

predicted NO

@jack that makes it less likely to happen because of desperation

predicted YES

@jack The govt is not a monolithic entity. It was already reported FDIC actively blocked (or was told to implicitly block) the largest 4 banks from acquiring SVB. Just because one part of the govt is trying to sell SVB doesn't mean another park isn't licking their chops ready to sue. Bank execs know this.

predicted NO

@GaryGrenda No bank can hold more than 25 percent of national deposits. That's the reason for the restricted mergers. Biden can issue an exception though...

predicted NO

Something similar happened in last crises. LTCM failed in 1998, Lehman failed, they were able to isolate it for a while then a year or two later total collapse. Small numbers will fail then 2025 obliterated

predicted YES

@BTE I dont think SVB would put all 4 of those over the 25%, if any of them.

bought Ṁ300 of NO

at what point will this resolve? 1 share from 1 bank? 100% owned by financial institutions? 100% owned by 1 financial institution?

predicted YES

@Gen If most of the bank is owned by financial institutions aside from FDIC/DNIB Santa Clara. It would require more than just the branches being sold to someone, for example.

bought Ṁ150 of YES