Background: On July 7, 2024, the Mexican general election will be held which will include the Mexican presidential election. The president is elected using first-past-the-post voting. According to opinion polls, Claudia Sheinbaum—currently the mayor of Mexico City—is the frontrunner to be the MORENA candidate.

MORENA is the party of the current president, known by his initials as AMLO, who is termed out. This is an Economist piece on AMLO's influence over the election, and Sheinbaum's competitor for the MORENA candidacy, Marcelo Ebrard.

This market will resolve as YES if Sheinbaum is declared the winner of 2024's presidential election by the National Electoral Institute, and NO otherwise.