Will Sheinbaum win the 2024 Mexican presidential election?
Jul 8

Background: On July 7, 2024, the Mexican general election will be held which will include the Mexican presidential election. The president is elected using first-past-the-post voting. According to opinion polls, Claudia Sheinbaum—currently the mayor of Mexico City—is the frontrunner to be the MORENA candidate.

MORENA is the party of the current president, known by his initials as AMLO, who is termed out. This is an Economist piece on AMLO's influence over the election, and Sheinbaum's competitor for the MORENA candidacy, Marcelo Ebrard.

This market will resolve as YES if Sheinbaum is declared the winner of 2024's presidential election by the National Electoral Institute, and NO otherwise.

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I affirmatively answer with a "NO" to the query. However, the most recent survey suggests that Claudia Sheinbaum, the presidential candidate from Mexico's ruling MORENA party and a close ally of the current president, is positioned for a decisive victory in the 2024 election. As per the poll conducted by Buendia & Marquez and El Universal, Sheinbaum commands 50% support in a competitive four-way race among leading candidates. Formerly serving as the mayor of Mexico City, the 61-year-old Sheinbaum has committed to carrying on the legacy of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador if elected. Her main rival, Xochitl Galvez, representing an opposition alliance, lags behind with 20%, suggesting the potential for Mexico's first female president. Those who express no preference make up 19% of the potential vote. Meanwhile, Governor Samuel Garcia of Nuevo Leon, who has not officially declared his candidacy, garners 7%, and independent candidate Eduardo Verastegui trails with 4%. Party preferences align with these patterns, with 53% of respondents indicating a preference for the left-wing MORENA

I consider that Mexican surveys have a certain margin of error, and each political party carefully selects who should be surveyed. In other words, I don't think the sample of the population is entirely accurate or representative of what it should be. Therefore, my stance is against participating because I believe not the entire population is accurately represented. I think it's crucial for surveys to reflect the diversity and complexity of our society to truly capture the perspectives of all citizens

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