Will Erdogan try to stop his main election opponent from running?
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resolved May 28
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NO

Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu has been chosen by a coalition of Turkish opposition parties to stand as their unified candidate. Will Erdogan do anything to prevent him from standing, such as arresting, poisoning, or assassinating him?

The popular front runner before the candidate was announced was Ekram Imamoglu, but in December 2022 he was jailed for calling the Supreme Election Council "fools".

Mar 12, 3:55pm: Will Erdogan’s main election opponent be prevented from running? → Will Erdogan try to stop his main election opponent from running?

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predicted NO

@xyz this market should resolve NO

predicted NO

I think this can resolve No. As the main opposition candidates ran. If anything happens in between rounds, he still was able to legally register and participate in the first round.

(Unless we can prove that Erdogan was behind the Imce sex tape... which seems hard to do).

> Will Erdogan do anything to prevent him from standing

I agree with @AaronKreider . Currently Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu stands against Erdogan, so this can resolve to NO, imo

I was very confused why Erdogan’s challenger was being announced so close to the election. Then my Turkish pals informed me that if the challenger is announced too early, it allows too much time for chicanery, and the challenger won’t make it to Election Day. 🤡

@Charlie That is not the reason, the reason is because the man opposition alliance couldnt agree for a candidate for over a year and then even with backlash had to pick the only option available. Erdogan has not ever stopped a main opposition party from running.

@MorotSvensson Do you think there is at least a 28% chance he will try to do it this time?

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