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Part 2

Will at least 2 people die in protests in response to Trump’s arrest before 2025?

50% chance. Their death must be directly caused by the protesting itself, in protests which in large part respond to an arrest or arraignment of Trump. Here are examples: Would count: Being killed by police Falling while actively protesting Being killed by protesters Would not count: Car crash…

Arraignment was on April 4th, 45 days ago (Live updates: Donald Trump arraigned on 34 felony counts - ABC News (go.com)). If no one on the YES side has evidence of deaths in protests between April 4th and May 4th, this can be resolved as NO, right?

@whenhaveiever Trump can be arrested multiple times in 2023

@xyz Nothing in the title or description specifies 2023. The plain language reading of the title and description, especially in light of the update, clearly refers to the arraignment that happened in April.

Deceased heads of state have in the past been dug up and charged posthumously, so if we're waiting until all possible future arrests or arraignments have happened, it is entirely impossible for this market to ever resolve NO.

@whenhaveiever I meant to say "before 2025," which is when the question closes. But it seems like this caused a bit of confusion so I'll just resolve it now and open a new question.

Updated description in light of the discussion below.

I'm expecting the big protests won't be at the moment of the arrest, but at later points like a hypothetical trial. How immediate after the arrest do the protests have to be to count?

I wouldn't consider a trial protest as the same as an arrest protest, but yeah, the market should have been time-boxed with something like "within 30 days of his indictment being made public".

@PeterBorah I think within 30 days of any arrest or arraignment is reasonable.