How many Palestinian prisoners will Israel release in exchange for Hamas hostages?
36
1kṀ6262
Jan 2
0.6%
0
1%
1-1000
10%
1001-2000
16%
2001-3000
35%
3001-4000
34%
4001-5000
1.1%
5001-6000
0.5%
6001-8000
0.5%
8001-10,000
0.5%
>10,000

Hamas has announced that they will release the Israeli hostages in the Gaza strip in exchange for all Palestinian prisoners in Israel. According to Al Jazeera, there are more than 10,000 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.

This question resolves to the total number of Palestinian prisoners who are released by Israel in exchanges for the return of hostages held by Hamas.

If it is determined that all hostages have been rescued, released, or died before closing, this question may resolve early.

If no Palestinian prisoners have been released in such exchanges by closing, resolves to 0.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gaza_war_ceasefire 240

https://he.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%94%D7%A1%D7%9B%D7%9D_%D7%97%D7%9E%D7%90%D7%A1%E2%80%93%D7%99%D7%A9%D7%A8%D7%90%D7%9C_(%D7%99%D7%A0%D7%95%D7%90%D7%A8%E2%80%93%D7%A4%D7%91%D7%A8%D7%95%D7%90%D7%A8_2025) 737 + 1167 = 1904

So it appears that 2144 in total as of now.

Current deal describes release of ~2000 Pal. prisoners in case of successful implementation, so either 3000-4000 or 4000-5000.

bought Ṁ8 YES

@VonGadke thanks for finding the numbers and doing the math!

@VonGadke when you say "~2000 palestinians" for the latest exchange, we have to take into account that 195 are prisoners + 1.700 detainees.

I'm not sure whether the author will count detainees as prisioners. @xyz can you clarify?

Shin Bet bends Hamas: Prisoner release ratio in deal is lowest in decades

In this other piece of news it is mentioned 250 prisoners + 1.700 detainees. Numbers change from one day to the other, depending on the source, but they are on the ballpark of ~200 prisoners + ~1700 detainees.

“In addition to the security prisoners, another 1,700 Gazan detainees arrested after, but not involved in the Hamas-led October 7, attack, will be freed back to the Strip or exiled abroad.”
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-publishes-list-of-250-palestinian-prisoners-it-will-release-islamic-jihad-commander-behind-3-suicide-bombings-to-go-free/

@MiguelLM we definitely need clarification for this one. I considered them more or less the same (=somebody who for one reason or another is behind the bars and is due to be released due to the deal) for the purposes of the question. Maybe I was right, maybe I was wrong.

@VonGadke from what I read recently it seems that:

- there are many administrative detainees without any trial and without public accusations, that Palestinians and some humanitarian organizations consider "hostages" rather than "prisoners"
- sometimes the media makes a clear distinction between detainees and prisoners (such as the two examples I shared). Some other times the number is aggregated

Probably the author was considering both together, but I'm not really sure, they will have to clarify.

I don't have any preference for either option. I just wanted to clarify it when I noticed the distinction prisoners/detainees while looking for the latest figures in the media. I was not really aware, I'm not very familiar with the topic.

sold Ṁ200 YES

When did the counting start for this market? Does it include prisoners released in Nov 23 and earlier this year?

@JoshCohen the question was created 2nd November 2023, and the announcement mentioned in the description is from October 2023, but the author should confirm.

bought Ṁ20 YES

The last deal Israel offered had a 30-50 to 1 exchange ratio. At ~100 prisoners this would be about 4k terrorists released.

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