Alongside the Prize Drawing announcement, Manifold has added a new identity verification system for new users. Users who don't provide ID and a selfie to pass the check (it uses the iDenfy API) are severely restricted. They apparently receive no starting mana and no quest bonuses, and they can't comment. This effectively makes the site unusable for anyone not willing to submit to the corporate panopticon. Existing users are grandfathered and not restricted.
These changes will be considered reversed if, without submitting to ID or selfie verification, new users:
Receive the same starting mana as before, or at least the same as ID-checked users.
Receive the same quest bonuses as before, or at least the same as ID-checked or grandfathered users.
Can comment and create markets/polls/posts freely.
All of these criteria must be fulfilled before the closing date (3 months from the change announcement) to resolve YES. The market will resolve YES early if this happens. Otherwise, the market will resolve NO on the closing date.
Restrictions on entry into the Prize Drawing, or restrictions on the referral system will not factor into the outcome of this market.
I may bet on this market. If the outcome is disputed, I will nominate a panel of 3 moderators to decide by vote.
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I feel like a game that is a reputation engine at its core could allow people to vouch for someone else with the reputation currency.
So maybe there is a way forward that lets people play and get bonuses but perhaps the free starting mana will never come back.
If this was a 3-5 year market I'd encourage anyone looking at this to buy Yes shares for long-run chances. For 3 months, meh, hard to guess.
@SG if we're no longer using Google login as a first-pass human/spam test, can we get a direct login method now???
@SG I imagine the future world in which free sites are inundated with AI bots beyond the capacity of normal moderation to handle will have developed better, more private human verification systems that are standard and expected by users. So being early on this doesn't necessarily make it a good idea.
@SG so we should surrender our privacy for the sake of this game? Better spam solutions do exist.
Maybe use verification to participate in charity raffles and drawings, and restrict commenting if suspicious activity is detected.