As discord is right now, it's a really good tool for communication. If they implemented this I might have to leave, so I'm hope betting.

The regulatory pressure for age verification is real and intensifying — the UK's Online Safety Act and various US state laws are pushing platforms toward compliance. But Discord has historically been slow to implement unpopular changes and has a strong community backlash mechanism. 'Cancel' in this context likely means 'indefinitely delay' rather than 'formally announce cancellation.' The question is whether the rollout stalls enough to count as cancelled under the resolution criteria.

What if it's rolled out, then rolled back?

@ChurlishGambit If it rolls out, the market immediately resolves NO.

@GnosticGirl What if it is quickly rolled back, though? Wouldn't that be backing down in the same way?

@ChurlishGambit I like quick resolutions so no. The same is true if they cancel it and then a week later bring it back. The market will immediately resolve YES regardless of if a few days later they decide to go ahead and do it anyways. So it's symmetric :)

@GnosticGirl Doesn't seem very useful as a predictor, then.

@ChurlishGambit what if it's rolled out and the rolled back and then rolled out again?

what if the storm irresistibly propels us into the future to which our backs are turned, while the pile of debris before us grows skyward?

are you aware that many adults won’t ever have show ID (and this has been part of their plan from the start)?

> we are introducing age inference to help us determine with high confidence whether a user on our platform is an adult. We leverage technologies that help predict whether a user is an adult with high likelihood based on patterns of user behavior and other signals associated with their account on Discord.

>

> For many adult users, this means access to age‑restricted content and features without needing to complete an explicit age verification flow. It’s a straightforward way for us to maintain age-appropriate experiences. This model is part of our broader toolkit and we will continue to improve it as we learn more.

>

> This isn’t always perfect, but we’ve tuned the model to be highly accurate. In the event that a user is placed incorrectly into the wrong age group, they can always reconfirm their age or remove the assigned age group through our age assurance flow and update their experience accordingly.

source: https://discord.com/safety/how-discord-is-building-safer-experiences-for-teens

@snazzlePop Yes, and if they switch to only using internal algorithms then the market will resolve YES. Thanks for asking since it's a good clarification :)

@GnosticGirl What do you mean? They aren't changing anything from their announcement. Why would that denote a YES resolution?

@Vandell If Discord ditches the ID and facial scan requirements and instead relies 100% on internal algorithms then the market will resolve YES. The planned mixed usage policy still resolves NO.

@GnosticGirl The initial announcement said they are going to use age inference. They are still rolling out ID and facial scan globally. The announcement that snazzlePop is referencing is a clarification, not a change in plan.

https://web.archive.org/web/20260209142047/https://discord.com/press-releases/discord-launches-teen-by-default-settings-globally

This is a snapshot pre-clarification. It still mentions using the inference model.

@Vandell 100% Agree. Nothing has changed in this prediction market or it's resolution. I was just agreeing that using 100% internal algorithms and not facial recognition or IDs will resolve YES

@GnosticGirl I still don't understand how that would resolve YES. Everyone's account will be judged by the algorithm, which then sends people on a track for ID verification to check for false positives. This is, essentially, what they announced.

So you're saying that if people are judged underage by this algorithm and given no recourse to verify, you will resolve this as YES?

@Vandell Yes, if people are judged underaged by the algorithm and there's no recourse to verify, the market resolves YES. Or if that recourse to verify somehow didn't involve facial recognition or an ID. I hope that helps!

@GnosticGirl ..I am still incredibly confused. If I get any of these wrong, please elaborate.

• Discord rolls out age inference + ID and/or facial scan (the current plan) → NO

• Discord switches to 100% internal age inference, no ID, no facial scan → YES

• ..but if Discord uses age inference, and gives under-18 classifications with no appeal → NO?

• Discord allows appeals that do not use ID or facial scans → YES?

• Discord makes no announcement by the deadline (or delays without a new 2026 date) → YES

• Discord delays but announces a new 2026 timeframe → NO (pending rollout)

@Vandell you've got it right, except for

1. "if Discord uses age inference and gives no appeal" since those don't involve facial scans or IDs. Resolves YES.

2. "Discord allows appeals that do not use IDs or facial scans." Resolves NO since those technologies are still used.

The point of this prediction market is about the facial scans and ID requirements. That's what users are in an uproar about on social media. No one cares about internal algorithms.

The question on the table essentially is if the backlash will cause discord to cancel their plans.