resolved Jan 26

Will US nominal GDP growth exceed 10% in 2022?

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Nominal GDP targeting is a proposed monetary policy mechanism to replace specific inflation targeting of the Federal Reserve (see https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/beckworth-ngdp-targeting-mercatus-special-study-v1.pdf). Scott Sumner has advocated having an actual market that trades on US nominal outcomes, which is used by the Fed to set interest rates, rather than via expert opinion (https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/market-driven-nominal-gdp-targeting-regime). This market will be one of several that uses Manifold's binary market mechanism to span a range of nominal GDP outcomes. The final outcome will be determined by the BEA's advance estimate for 2022 full year nominal GDP estimate, typically published on the last Thursday in January, 2023. BEA publishes this data at this link (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2) Table 1.1.7, Line 1.

Close date updated to 2023-01-25 11:59 pm

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predicted NO at 5%

Looking at the GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Fed, I just don't see it hitting 10%

predicted NO at 17%

Seems pretty unlikely at this point since December 2022 CPI change won't be massive, but December 2021 was 0.5 pp, meaning November's report of annual CPI change of 7.1% will probably become a lower percent change in December year to year. Which means overall real GDP will need to beat 3% for the whole year, which probably won't happen given real GDP growth was negative in the first 2 quarters.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Not with this recession coming for us

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 NO at 3%

bought Ṁ100 NO from 5% to 4%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 5%

filled limit order Ṁ239/Ṁ500 NO at 5% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 NO from 11% to 10%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 11%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ100 YES at 11% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ20 NO from 11% to 10%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ100 NO at 11% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ20 NO from 13% to 12%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 13%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 14% to 13%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 15% to 14%

bought Ṁ10 NO at 15%

bought Ṁ15 NO from 17% to 15%

bought Ṁ10 NO from 18% to 17%

AccelerationBot

filled limit order Ṁ26/Ṁ200 NO at 18% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ10 YES from 16% to 22%

filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ13 NO at 16% (cancelled)

bought Ṁ20 NO from 19% to 17%

created limit order for Ṁ30 NO at 75% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ19 NO at 85% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 90% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 91% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 97% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 93% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 98% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 92% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ92 NO at 70% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ9 NO at 88% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 96% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 95% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 94% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ102 NO at 60% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ19 NO at 50% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ29 NO at 80% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ3 NO at 95% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 99.0% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 88% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ4 NO at 94% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ5 NO at 97% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ11 NO at 75% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 96% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 90% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ17 NO at 70% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ9 NO at 92% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 93% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ2 NO at 85% (cancelled)

created limit order for Ṁ4 NO at 80% (cancelled)