Nominal GDP targeting is a proposed monetary policy mechanism to replace specific inflation targeting of the Federal Reserve (see https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/beckworth-ngdp-targeting-mercatus-special-study-v1.pdf). Scott Sumner has advocated having an actual market that trades on US nominal outcomes, which is used by the Fed to set interest rates, rather than via expert opinion (https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/market-driven-nominal-gdp-targeting-regime). This market will be one of several that uses Manifold's binary market mechanism to span a range of nominal GDP outcomes. The final outcome will be determined by the BEA's advance estimate for 2022 full year nominal GDP estimate, typically published on the last Thursday in January, 2023. BEA publishes this data at this link (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2) Table 1.1.7, Line 1.

Close date updated to 2023-01-25 11:59 pm