wilsonkime avatar
Wilson Kime
resolved Jan 26
Will US nominal GDP growth exceed 10% in 2022?
Resolved
NO

Nominal GDP targeting is a proposed monetary policy mechanism to replace specific inflation targeting of the Federal Reserve (see https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/beckworth-ngdp-targeting-mercatus-special-study-v1.pdf). Scott Sumner has advocated having an actual market that trades on US nominal outcomes, which is used by the Fed to set interest rates, rather than via expert opinion (https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/market-driven-nominal-gdp-targeting-regime). This market will be one of several that uses Manifold's binary market mechanism to span a range of nominal GDP outcomes. The final outcome will be determined by the BEA's advance estimate for 2022 full year nominal GDP estimate, typically published on the last Thursday in January, 2023. BEA publishes this data at this link (https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2) Table 1.1.7, Line 1.

Close date updated to 2023-01-25 11:59 pm

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wilsonkime avatar
Wilson Kime
predicted NO at 5%

Looking at the GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Fed, I just don't see it hitting 10%

wilsonkime avatar
Wilson Kime
predicted NO at 17%

Seems pretty unlikely at this point since December 2022 CPI change won't be massive, but December 2021 was 0.5 pp, meaning November's report of annual CPI change of 7.1% will probably become a lower percent change in December year to year. Which means overall real GDP will need to beat 3% for the whole year, which probably won't happen given real GDP growth was negative in the first 2 quarters.

ian avatar
Ian Philips
bought Ṁ50 of NO
Not with this recession coming for us