What will be the percent change in US Nominal GDP be in 2023?
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150
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resolved Jan 25
Resolved
6.3

The final outcome will be determined by this FRED data series https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RP1A027NBEA titled "Gross Domestic Product, Percent Change from Preceding Period, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted." This is calculated by averaging the 4 quarter measures of GDP from 2023 and dividing by the quarter average from 2022.

Nominal GDP targeting is a proposed monetary policy mechanism to replace specific inflation targeting of the Federal Reserve (see https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/beckworth-ngdp-targeting-mercatus-special-study-v1.pdf).

Please note this is NOMINAL GDP growth, not real GDP growth, which is the typically reported number in headlines. Nominal GDP growth = real GDP + inflation.

Jan 20, 4:54pm: What will US Nominal GDP growth be in 2023? → What will be the percent change in US Nominal GDP be in 2023?

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predicted HIGHER

Hmm I'm having trouble resolving this to a decimal...does manifold not support resolving a numerical market to a decimal? Perhaps for next year I should just make a binary yes/no on whether gdp growth is above or below a certain level.

@wilsonkime You can do it via the API.


The range is -10 to 25 and the resolution desired is 6.3:

Resolution Probability: (6.3 - -10) / (25 - -10) => 46.6%

I think the closest we can do is 47% if we resolve with these parameters:

{

"contractId": "qJFAJkXnVs3OT495WTkg",

"outcome": "MKT",

"value": 6.3,

"probabilityInt": 47

}

If you agree, I can do that for you, or you can do it yourself.

predicted HIGHER

@Eliza sure you can do it. I don't have any API calls set up right now.

@wilsonkime Nothing feels better than resolving a Numeric market so everyone gets their 1 mana profit or loss 😂

predicted HIGHER

wow exactly to what the market said

bought Ṁ3 of HIGHER

Q3 numbers would already put this at 5.5% and if Q4 goes higher, that will pull the average up

Updating the description to make FRED the ultimate source.

Updating the title to specify the number is percent change

Note if you want to predict for 2022 GDP, I also have a market for that resolving in a couple weeks when BEA releases their numbers https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/what-will-be-the-percent-change-us