The final outcome will be determined by this FRED data series https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A191RP1A027NBEA titled "Gross Domestic Product, Percent Change from Preceding Period, Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted." This is calculated by averaging the 4 quarter measures of GDP from 2023 and dividing by the quarter average from 2022.
Nominal GDP targeting is a proposed monetary policy mechanism to replace specific inflation targeting of the Federal Reserve (see https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/beckworth-ngdp-targeting-mercatus-special-study-v1.pdf).
Please note this is NOMINAL GDP growth, not real GDP growth, which is the typically reported number in headlines. Nominal GDP growth = real GDP + inflation.
Jan 20, 4:54pm: What will US Nominal GDP growth be in 2023? → What will be the percent change in US Nominal GDP be in 2023?
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@wilsonkime You can do it via the API.
The range is -10 to 25 and the resolution desired is 6.3:
Resolution Probability: (6.3 - -10) / (25 - -10) => 46.6%
I think the closest we can do is 47% if we resolve with these parameters:
{
"contractId": "qJFAJkXnVs3OT495WTkg",
"outcome": "MKT",
"value": 6.3,
"probabilityInt": 47
}
If you agree, I can do that for you, or you can do it yourself.
@wilsonkime Nothing feels better than resolving a Numeric market so everyone gets their 1 mana profit or loss 😂
Note if you want to predict for 2022 GDP, I also have a market for that resolving in a couple weeks when BEA releases their numbers https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/what-will-be-the-percent-change-us