How many Spacex Starship launches will there be in 2024?
How many Spacex Starship launches will there be in 2024?
40
1kṀ14kresolved Jan 2
Resolved
YES4 or more
Resolved
YES2 or more
Resolved
YES3 or more
Resolved
NO5 or more
Resolved
NO6 or more
All markets that are true will resolve YES as they occur. I can add additional markets if most of the markets are resolved with much of the year left.
Figured this market could provide more liquidity and give a more specific answer than some of the others.
List of launches so far this year:
14 March
6 June
13 October
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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