Will there be a new trillion-dollar company before 2025?

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resolved Jun 11

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Currently Wikipedia lists 7: PetroChina, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Tesla. Will there be a new one by the end of 2024?

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predictedYES

@DavidChee if you could resolve this

Nvidia?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/nvidia-set-become-first-1-093348739.html

It's on the list:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_public_corporations_by_market_capitalization

@wilf

predictedYES

@wilf

Saudi Aramco?

Y'all don't forget companies outside of the US!! Personally, I think TSMC is going to do everything they can to maximize their valuation over the next couple years, perhaps sell to a company like Nvidia but continue operating as wholly independent companies since there is no overlap in business model.

@BTE The US government ordering Apple or Nvidia to purchase TSMC or enter merger with US control over final entity is the most surefire way to stop a Chinese invasion. Make Taiwan as close to the 51st state as possible by making an attack on them an attack on Cupertino.

predictedYES

Would it count if an existing >$1T company falls below $1T in value, and then raises above $1T again before 2025?

@bcongdon no

predictedYES

How about if Tesla hits $1T again? It's been over $1T, but that was before this market was created. (I think...why is there no easy way to see market creation date?)

@LucaMasters Look at the far left of the chart to get an approximate. And no, it has to be a new Trillion dollar club member. I believe Amazon has actually passed the trillion dollar mark at least once while this market has been open, but doesn't matter, has to be new.

Isn't this almost guaranteed? All it takes is, for instance, an existing $999B company to grow by 0.1% in the next 2 years

@Frogs Great point

@agrippa unless what OP means is that a new trillion-dollar company will be FOUNDED before 2025, in which case it's almost impossible. Either way, weird question

@Frogs there is no 999B company, the closest is Tesla at 750B according to https://companiesmarketcap.com/. Although Tesla I see as more 'volatile', there is also https://companiesmarketcap.com/berkshire-hathaway/marketcap/ at 683B that to me feels like a 'tech-crash-hedge' and has done well consistently. I think the probability is high, maybe 80%, but I won't bet because it is a long time to lock your money up when there are other markets printing in shorter term.