thanks @Marnix for the liquidity, I'll match ✌️

What does "with US backing" cover?

@zsig American supplied arms, machinery, intelligence, troops yada yada yada

if US divests from Israel, ie. stops funding Israel, stops arm transfers in lieu of the war then it would be without us backing.

hope that clears it up? I'd love some insight if you'd like to offer some, don't want this to be a muddy resolution

@zsig I put us backing in there because I think the fallout from this potential war on kamala's chances is lessened if the US divests.

@whhatisachoice So it has to be support after the war starts? For example, would Israel using American-supplied missiles bought before the war count?

@whhatisachoice does this market make a distinction from the US providing offensive + defensive weaponry vs. strictly defensive?

@mattyb that's a good idea, does make a ton a sense, I'll add that. defensive weaponry is on the table. I don't think the US divests at all but it would be a welcome change. thank you

@zsig yes, if the US halts support now/whenever the war starts that means US does not provide ongoing support.

What do you know? This market went up, who could have predicted this!?

They're doing a genocide and an ethnic cleansing. Israel is a rogue state, and we should've known this since a year ago.

hall of fame material

commodities are bout be more expensive soon folks and that's bidenomics.

@whhatisachoice bidenomics: spending a lot of money without getting any wins because you don't even really try (in the IRA, infrastructure bill, against Russia, Iran, dockworker strikers, you name it he does it)

@ShakedKoplewitz infrastructure bill and Russia have been absolute bangers, Biden has just been absolutely a lame duck on Israel and global trade will suffer for it.

@whhatisachoice Biden's been almost as cowardly against Russia as he was against Iran, being afraid to give Ukraine enough weapons to actually win (or even "not just gradually lose") partly because he's hyper focused on "de-escalation" and partly because his industrial policy can't get results on things like ammunition manufacturing either.

@ShakedKoplewitz ah I guess I agree with that not really cause American manufacturing has seen much worse times and got a significant boost under Biden and also Biden is as much a hawk on Israel as anyone can be.

With Ukraine sure I understand somewhat.

boosting this in light of current events

@whhatisachoice I mean, probably not, but I bought yes anyway because it's cheap enough

@Choms lol yea but it does up the ante for sure

@whhatisachoice haha that was some quick profit but looking at the recent developments I'm gonna hold my yes a bit longer

@Choms that really went ballistic huh

“Intense Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon”

-news aggregator visegrad24

I hope not, but Netanyahu is a genocidal freak. This market is probably appropriately priced at ~8%

The US has had chances to go to war with Iran for Israel. Not doing so has been its one red line with Bibi. Iran for its part seems equally unwilling to take that step. #TeamNothingEverHappens

@OP I hope so dude

An act of war must be declared by congress. Is that what you’re intending for a YES resolve here?

@mattyb i have been thinking about this, currently what I've been able to come up with is:

U.S. White House or Department of Defense or the State Department confirming involvement in the war.

Israeli Prime Minister's Office or Ministry of Defense and/or credible International Outlets like Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, BBC, CNN, and Al Jazeera would likely report on an official declaration of war.

Do you have any suggestions?

@whhatisachoice going with a broad representation of trusted journalistic organizations seems like as good as you’ll get here. thanks for clarifying