Is the October suprise a US backed war with Iran?
Mini
14
Ṁ1142
Oct 31
11%
chance

Resolves yes if Israel (with US Backing) is at war with Iran(not a proxy war) by the end of October 2024.

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“Intense Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon”

-news aggregator visegrad24

bought Ṁ25 YES from 7% to 13%
bought Ṁ5 YES

I hope not, but Netanyahu is a genocidal freak. This market is probably appropriately priced at ~8%

bought Ṁ300 NO

The US has had chances to go to war with Iran for Israel. Not doing so has been its one red line with Bibi. Iran for its part seems equally unwilling to take that step. #TeamNothingEverHappens

@OP I hope so dude

opened a Ṁ1 NO at 24% order

An act of war must be declared by congress. Is that what you’re intending for a YES resolve here?

@mattyb i have been thinking about this, currently what I've been able to come up with is:

U.S. White House or Department of Defense or the State Department confirming involvement in the war.

Israeli Prime Minister's Office or Ministry of Defense and/or credible International Outlets like Reuters, The New York Times, The Washington Post, BBC, CNN, and Al Jazeera would likely report on an official declaration of war.

Do you have any suggestions?

@whhatisachoice going with a broad representation of trusted journalistic organizations seems like as good as you’ll get here. thanks for clarifying

Israel has a much better chance of getting more funding under Biden (I think) and it they are ever gonna do it then the time is soon.

Also this hurts kamala and Netanyahu would rather Trump be in office ( I think).