Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if Israel or the United States launches airstrikes against Iran before October 27, 2026 (the scheduled date of the next Israeli election). If the election is held earlier than this date, the market will resolve earlier as well. Airstrikes must involve direct military action targeting Iranian territory, military installations, nuclear facilities, or government infrastructure. Drone strikes, missile strikes, and manned aircraft operations all qualify. The market resolves NO if no such airstrikes occur by the election date.

Resolution will be determined by credible reporting from major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.) confirming that strikes have occurred.

Background

Israel and Iran engaged in a 12-day war from June 13-24, 2025, during which the United States also conducted strikes on June 22, 2025. Netanyahu recently raised the possibility of renewed military strikes on Iran during a meeting with Trump, including what one US official described as a potential round two in 2026. Trump would likely back "round two" if the U.S. sees Iran taking real and verifiable steps to reconstitute its nuclear program.