GPT-4 was announced on March 14, 2023. The corresponding release paper references GPT-4 as a "large multimodal model (accepting image and text inputs, emitting text outputs)".
However, currently both the API and the UI playground version of GPT-4 only accept text inputs with image input "coming later".
Resolves YES if
Whether by full release or staggered rollout, by means of the API or the UI interface, OpenAI allows at least some portion of the general public access to the image input "multimodal" version of GPT-4 by December 1, 2023.
Resolves NO otherwise.
Related questions
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https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt-can-now-see-hear-and-speak
“Plus and Enterprise users will get to experience voice and images in the next two weeks”. OpenAI’s X page further specifies: https://x.com/openai/status/1706280618429141022?s=46
“ChatGPT can now see, hear, and speak. Rolling out over next two weeks, Plus users will be able to have voice conversations with ChatGPT (iOS & Android) and to include images in conversations (all platforms). ”
For these reasons the market resolves YES.
November 30th 2022 is the chatGPT release date. If they don’t release it before then I think an anniversary update would be fitting.
The usage caps on UI playground GPT-4 increasing from 25 to 50 recently gives me a signal that the resource shortage is loosening as they are either acquiring more compute, implementing better optimizations or bleeding off users.
Finally, a (now deleted) interview with Sam Altman indicated they are not working on a successor model to GPT-4 this year and are instead focusing on expanding tooling, capability and driving down the cost of their existing models.
For these reasons I believe the release of the full GPT-4 model is imminent.