Resolution criteria

The election consists of a first round on 18 January and a second round scheduled for 8 February. The winner will be determined by the results of the second round runoff. In the first round, António José Seguro (PS) won the most votes with 31%, while André Ventura (CH) came second with 23.5%. Because no candidate reached the required 50% threshold, Seguro and Ventura will face each other in a second round run-off on 8 February.

Resolution will be based on official results from Portugal's electoral authorities, available at Diário da República or the Portuguese Electoral Commission.

If the second round does not occur as scheduled due to extraordinary circumstances (constitutional crisis, force majeure), the market resolves N/A.

Background

The President of Portugal has a largely ceremonial role, with no executive power, but can veto new laws and dissolve Parliament. This will be only the second time that a direct Portuguese presidential election goes to a second round, after the 1986 election.

Candidates eliminated in the first round included Cotrim de Figueiredo (IL) who came third with 16%, and Gouveia e Melo (independent) fourth with 12%. Marques Mendes (PSD) received 11%, the lowest in Portuguese history for a government supported presidential candidate. Catarina Martins (BE) received 2%, while António Filipe (PCP) received less than 2%.

Considerations

The February 8 vote will mark the first time a far-right candidate has advanced to a presidential run-off in Portugal. Polls predicted Ventura could top the first round but would lose round two on February 8, regardless of which of the other candidates he faced, due to limited support for his far-right Chega party beyond its base.

This description was generated by AI.