Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter. Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction. Original prediction: "Luis Marques Mendes elected president of Portugal" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post. If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.
1,000"With days to go until Portugal’s presidential election on 18 January, the race is unusually open. João Cotrim de Figueiredo, the liberal candidate backed by Iniciativa Liberal, has moved from afterthought to genuine contender for the runoff. A recent poll for CNN Portugal, TVI, JN and TSF captures the fragmentation." https://www.wespeakfreely.org/2026/01/15/portugals-presidential-sprint-a-liberal-breaks-into-the-front-pack/
