Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Bitcoin's price reaches or exceeds a specific price target before March 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM UTC. Resolution will be determined by the highest price Bitcoin trades at on any major exchange (Coinbase, Kraken, Binance, or similar tier-1 venues) during the specified timeframe. The resolution price should be verified using historical price data from CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap, which aggregate prices across major exchanges.

Background

Bitcoin reached an all-time high exceeding $115,970 in September 2025, but has since experienced significant volatility. Bitcoin dropped nearly 10% in early February 2026, reaching nine-month lows below $78,000. As of early February 2026, Bitcoin briefly broke support before rebounding above $76,000. Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $109,114 on December 17, 2025, supported by institutional adoption through spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Considerations

Bitcoin's price is currently driven largely by leverage, positioning and shallow market depth rather than by fundamental economic shifts. Analyst predictions for 2026 vary widely: some predict new highs of $150k-$170k citing ETF inflows and adoption, while others foresee a bear market of $60k-$75k citing tightening liquidity and policy shifts. Some investors worry about a potential crash as the market enters a four-year cycle bear market, though many Wall Street institutions believe the cryptocurrency market's four-year cycle has become invalid.

This description was generated by AI.