1/5 Tries

Predictle #18

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=d2ViM25hZmVl

2/5 tries
Predictle #19

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=d2ViM25hZmVl

3/5

Predictle #20

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=d2ViM25hZmVl

4/5
Predictle #21

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=d2ViM25hZmVl

5/5 tries

Predictle #22

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Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=d2ViM25hZmVl

Resolution criteria

I will track my performance on Predictle over 5 consecutive attempts. A "perfect score" is achieved when I correctly arrange all prediction markets by their true probabilities in a single game. The market will resolve to the number of times I achieve a perfect score across these 5 games, with possible outcomes ranging from 0 to 5.

Background

Predictle is a daily game where you arrange prediction markets by probability. Each game presents a set of prediction markets that must be ordered from lowest to highest probability of resolving yes. Success requires both understanding the underlying events and accurately estimating their likelihoods.

Considerations

Predictle difficulty varies significantly based on the specific markets presented each day. Some days feature markets with clearly differentiated probabilities, while others present close calls that require nuanced probability estimation. Your performance may depend on your familiarity with current events and your calibration on probability assessment.