If I ever solve the Predictle in 1 try, this market resolves YES. If I ever fail to solve the Predictle, this market resolves NO. Not doing a Predictle does not count as a failure.
For context, I solved Predictle #23 and #24 in 2 tries each. I will post my Predictle score in the comments each time I do it and remember to put it there. I will actively try to solve the Predictle in as few attempts as possible, and I will refrain from googling the answer, though I may use google to get context (such as searching Elon Musk’s current net worth for today’s puzzle).
This market stays open until the resolution criteria is met, or if I close the market early for some unforeseen reason (such as I stop doing the predictle or I delete my Manifold account, or I forget to extend the closing date). If the market closes early, it will resolve at 50% or N/A (or something else deemed appropriate; feel free to leave suggestions in the comments).
My participation in this market will be limited to the purchase of 10 mana worth of shares per day, and may be related to my predictle score from that day.
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Too lazy to delete the link at the bottom but not too lazy to type this out
Predictle #28
❌❌✅
❌✅✅
❌❌✅
❌✅✅
✅✅✅
Play at https://manifold.markets/predictle?r=TWF0aHpvbWJpZTEw
Tbh I have a strong suspicion that with optimal play I can never lose a Predictle.
As long as I get at least 1 spot right first try, I think it will take at most 3 more guesses. Though I suspect that number can be brought down to be a 2 with careful proofs.
Maybe not; if I ever miss all 5/5 on the first try I might have a chance of losing.