Will the North Pole move more than 100 miles between 2020 and 2025?
Plus
13
Ṁ393Dec 2
77%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
When the WMM2025 is released, this question will resolve YES if the distance between the WMM2025's north dip pole result and WMM2020's result (longitude 164.04°E and latitude 86.50°N) is greater than 100 nautical miles.
You can find more information here: https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/WMM/limit.shtml
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
Going off of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_magnetic_pole in 2009 it was moving "at between 55 and 60 km (34 and 37 mi) per year". There are some projections for current movement but I'm too lazy to calculate the distances/speeds.
Related questions
Related questions
Will the average global temperature in 2025 exceed 2023?
55% chance
(M5000 subsidy) Will the Arctic sea ice fully melt before the year 2050?
64% chance
Will Earth. have another ice age in the next 50,000 years?
34% chance
Will more than 20% of all transoceanic freight/shipping be routed through the Arctic before 2050?
75% chance
Will someone successfully introduce polar bears to the south pole by mid 2031
15% chance
Will the Earths magnetic poles reverse before 2050?
20% chance
Will the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050?
80% chance
Will the north pole be ice free by 2030?
13% chance
Will Russia be the de facto ruling power of the North Pole by 2027?
13% chance
Do you think that it will be colder in 2025?
44% chance