MANIFOLD
When will small phones come back?
7
Ṁ1kṀ839
2036
May 29, 2031
75%
Before 2036
66%
Before 2035
52%
Before 2030
50%
Before 2031
50%
Before 2032
50%
Before 2033
50%
Before 2034
48%
Before 2029
45%
Before 2028
22%
Before 2027

I miss small phones. To me a small phone has the following:

  • Overall diagonal size 6" or less (not just screen size)

  • Thickness of 10mm or less

  • Weight of 200g or less

For this to resolve YES, there should be a phone:

  • Matches the size criteria above

  • Has a screen size 4" or greater

  • Has a modern, flagship-level processor

  • Capable of running the latest OS version

  • Promised at least three years of software updates

  • Available for purchase in the US and works with US carriers

I'll try to interpret flagship-level processor pretty widely. For instance the Pixel A-series would count if they keep that structure, same with the iPhone E- or SE-series. A new phone with a 5-year-old processor will not.

Foldables have been an interesting development recently. I was going to rule them out entirely but I'll allow a foldable if it meets all the size criteria while closed and there are no obvious impediments to using the phone in that mode (like elevated cameras).

Currently the closest available phones are:

  • Pixel 5 (my last phone): No longer getting updates, slightly too large

  • Pixel 8 (what I currently have): Too large

  • Unihertz Jelly Max: Processor too weak, doesn't run Android 16

  • Galaxy Z Flip6: Too thick when folded, exterior screen is too small and has a camera bump

  • iPhone 13 Mini: Isn't directly available for purchase, no update guarantee

I welcome suggestions for existing phones but this market will only count new ones. If there's some technological advancement such that we replace handheld phones with brain implants or whatever I'll probably N/A any options that are still open.

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sold Ṁ50 YES

I think you accidentally created this as the wrong kind of market? I tried to buy a bunch of Before 2036 and the expected date went way up, seems like "Before 2036" is actually "Exactly 2036"

@theo Ugh, I think you're right. I know there are bugs in the graph that make it pretty unreliable for date/numeric markets (example here) but looking at the API I think the bins are all as you say. I'll mess around on dev to see if I can reproduce this (I know I made it with the threshold option, I didn't type "Before" on all the answers myself). For now my plan is to leave this market as-is since it only affects the graph, and maybe they'll allow us to edit the bins sometime in the next ten years.

@wasabipesto So it actually looks like the bins are placed as intended, based on the prompt here: https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/blob/b632fcbc94afd255ac43ff8acc64e18ed8d5ff49/backend/api/src/generate-ai-date-ranges.ts#L74

So I would guess that the graph is just messed up.

sold Ṁ10 YES

@wasabipesto might be just the graph and the API just doesn't prepend Before? Tried buying and selling 10 and now it went way down...

@wasabipesto whoops didn't see your response, yeah

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