Will there be a ≥7-magnitude earthquake in Mexico during September 2023?
35
690Ṁ9327resolved Oct 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will use Sismológico Nacional data as confirmation.
Previously:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ63 | |
| 2 | Ṁ49 | |
| 3 | Ṁ34 | |
| 4 | Ṁ28 | |
| 5 | Ṁ23 |
Sort by:
7 in last 10 years so about 6% per month.
~1.5 days left so divide that by 20 gives probability around 0.3% (This assumes we get no advance warning. If we do get any indications of higher risk in advance then perhaps the risk is a bit lower.)
@jacksonpolack Who is going to believe that? The frequency of magnitude >15 earthquakes is ?
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be a category 7.5-7.9 earthquake in the Los Angeles Metro Area at 8:21am on May 23, 2025?
1% chance
Will there be an earthquake of at least 8.0 magnitude by July 15?
14% chance
Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2026? (May 5)
55% chance
Will an earthquake over 6.4 magnitude happen before 2026 in the USA?
79% chance
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?
8% chance
Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2025?
Will there be an earthquake of magnitude >6.0 in the New Madrid Seismic Zone by the end of 2026?
14% chance