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This had a 15% chance on predictle, but it had already resolved no. So it should have been 0% chance. I guess the probabilities are fixed at the time it is created. But there is no indication of when that was.

@AndrewHebb yeah it was unfair

@AndrewHebb @cc6

no offense but you're both just wrong and sound a little upset you just got something wrong on the predictle.

@Yuna yuna this happened before market creation date didn't it? 🙃

@No_uh True. And it was 'displayed on the website above between when this market was created and January 12th 0:00 UTC' 💡

@No_uh @Yuna To clarify, the idea is that the earthquake itself occurred between the time of creation and 0:00 UTC on January 12th. Apologies if this wasn't clear.

Resolves YES. A 6.5 occurred on January 10th, 14:58 UTC time off the coast of Indonesia.

(edit: please ignore, the verified magnitude has been updated to 6.4)

@waitblock strange seems to be still showing 6.4 to me, I have tried refreshing

2026-01-10T14:58:23Z

6.4

3.7

126.99

31

245 km NNW of Tobelo, Indonesia

There are differences eg 2 sec, depth, 1km distance so it could be I have old info somehow.

@waitblock Let's hope this isn't just to F*ck with prediction markets

@JussiVilleHeiskanen @ChristopherRandles No, I saw it as 6.5, but I will unresolve now, because it seems like new data has come in.

@mods Could this be unresolved?

@waitblock done

@Ziddletwix thanks

@ChristopherRandles Based on the USGS website, they have measured the magnitude a couple of different ways, so I guess that's why it changed https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/pt26010000/origin/magnitude

Sorry for the confusion, I will be less hasty about resolving this kind of market in the future.

A 6.4 occurred today off the coast of the philippines

When this market was created?

@Areal Early Jan 5th or late Jan 4th, you can see this and time at 3 dots button then 'see info' option