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Navalny's name has been floated in the context of a prisoner exchange, according to the WSJ https://www.wsj.com/world/putin-wants-his-hit-man-back-5bd759f8 . Not clear if Putin (or, for that matter, Navalny) would accept the deal, but it does seem to raise the chances...

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@PS there's two more questions, about EOY 2024 and 2025!
https://manifold.markets/wadimiusz/will-alexei-navalny-be-alive-and-ou-2750ae3f9cd3

https://manifold.markets/wadimiusz/will-alexei-navalny-be-alive-and-ou-46483d8fe41d

Will Alexei Navalny be alive and out of custody by the start of 2025?

22% chance. Alexei Navalny is a Russian politician and Putin's critic. He survived an assassination attempt widely linked with Russian secret services. He is currently imprisoned. I will use media sources and my best judgement to determine if he is alive, and free. I posted the same question with different end dates: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026

He'll probably be alive, but I think there is only a small chance he'll be out of prison. Him getting released requires Putin dying or losing power.

https://news.sky.com/story/alexei-navalny-jailed-putin-critic-needs-urgent-medical-assistance-germany-says-12786309

Will Alexei Navalny be alive and out of custody by the start of 2024?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition