Will Alexei Navalny be alive and out of custody by the start of 2025?
28
168
Ṁ15KṀ550
resolved Feb 17
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Alexei Navalny is a Russian politician and Putin's critic. He survived an assassination attempt widely linked with Russian secret services. He is currently imprisoned.
I will use media sources and my best judgement to determine if he is alive, and free.
I posted the same question with different end dates: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ128 | |
| 2 | Ṁ76 | |
| 3 | Ṁ54 | |
| 4 | Ṁ33 | |
| 5 | Ṁ19 |
Sort by:
@JamesSully For terrible things like this, good epistemology is essential, and prediction markets are a very important epistemological tool. The fake internet money you have received corresponds to actual epistemological value you have provided. Indeed I feel like contributing to seeking the truth, and continuing to do the things that should be done, is a great response to this shocking news.
Related questions
Will Vladimir Putin still be alive at the beginning of 2030?
66% chance
Will Boris Nadezhdin be free and in Russia at the end of 2024?
83% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be alive by January 1, 2025?
86% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be alive at the end of 2030?
59% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be alive at the end of 2035?
40% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be alive and out of custody for at least 7 days after he ceases to be the president of Russia?
31% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be alive at the end of 2034?
47% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be alive at the end of 2040?
32% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be alive at the end of 2036?
45% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be alive at the end of 2032?
60% chance