Will Alexei Navalny be alive and out of custody by the start of 2025?

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resolved Feb 17

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Alexei Navalny is a Russian politician and Putin's critic. He survived an assassination attempt widely linked with Russian secret services. He is currently imprisoned.

I will use media sources and my best judgement to determine if he is alive, and free.

I posted the same question with different end dates: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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@JamesSully For terrible things like this, good epistemology is essential, and prediction markets are a very important epistemological tool. The fake internet money you have received corresponds to actual epistemological value you have provided. Indeed I feel like contributing to seeking the truth, and continuing to do the things that should be done, is a great response to this shocking news.

Now that Navalny's spokeswoman Kira Yarmysh confirmed Navalny's death, I am resolving NO.

I will wait for one day in case the news turns out to be fake, and then resolve no

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