Resolves yes if there is a model that receives a natural language description (e.g."Give me a video of a puppy playing with a kitten") and outputs a realistic looking video matching the description.

It does *not* have to be *undetectable* as AI generated, merely "realistic enough".

It must be able to consistently generate realistic videos >=30 seconds long to count.

DALL-E 2 (https://cdn.openai.com/papers/dall-e-2.pdf) counts as "realistic enough" *image* generation from natural language descriptions (I am writing this before the model is fully available, if it turns out that all the samples are heavily cherry picked DALL-E 2 does not count but a hypothetical model as good as the cherry picked examples would).

Duplicate of https://manifold.markets/vluzko/will-there-be-realistic-ai-generate

• Update 2024-23-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Videos must be coherent throughout the full duration - meaning they must maintain consistency with the original prompt for the entire video without shifting between unrelated scenes

  • Looped scenes do not count

  • A single example of a successful video is not sufficient for resolution

  • The video must show continuous action/motion (like "two people walking down a city street having a conversation") for the full duration

• Update 2024-24-12 (PST): - The success rate must be at least 66% of DALL-E 2's rate, not a flat rate. (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Evidence must be publicly available. Having the model publicly available does not suffice.

  • If sample videos meeting the criteria are found, the market will be delayed until more information is available.