Will AI beat the best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2024? | Manifold Markets

Vincent Luczkow

closes Dec 31, 2024

Technical AI Timelines

Will AI beat the best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2024?

29%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Will any AI beat the best human competitive programmers in any major coding competition by the end of 2024?

Major coding competitions: ICPC, IOI, TopCoder tournaments, etc. I will also accept something like "solves every problem on Kattis", even if there's no particular competition to point at that it won.

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Will AI beat the best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2024?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

Predict bought Ṁ50 NO from 31% to 29%

Maxim Machula bought Ṁ10 NO from 32% to 31%

brwa sold Ṁ36 NO from 30% to 32%

Sebastián Ortega bought Ṁ10 YES from 29% to 30%

Glen Taggart bought Ṁ10 YES from 28% to 29%

Jon Simon bought Ṁ40 NO from 30% to 28%

Predict bought Ṁ10 NO at 30%

Noa Nabeshima sold Ṁ5 YES from 31% to 30%

Noa Nabeshima bought Ṁ10 NO at 31%

Noa Nabeshima bought Ṁ10 YES from 30% to 31%

Jon Simon bought Ṁ20 NO from 31% to 30%

dp bought Ṁ10 NO from 32% to 31%

Carlo Attubato bought Ṁ10 NO at 32%

Predict bought Ṁ20 NO from 33% to 32%

Predict sold Ṁ19 YES from 35% to 33%

Predict bought Ṁ20 YES at 35%

Odoacre created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 40%

mkualquiera bought Ṁ149 YES at 35%

Bet sold Ṁ135 NO from 33% to 35%

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E McNeill bought Ṁ20 NO from 35% to 34%

Anton bought Ṁ100 YES at 35%

Anton bought Ṁ100 YES from 34% to 35%

Preen filled limit order Ṁ777/Ṁ1,000 NO at 35%

Preen bought Ṁ65 NO from 39% to 34%

Preen bought Ṁ100 NO from 41% to 39%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ8/Ṁ100 YES at 41% (cancelled)

Preen bought Ṁ100 NO from 42% to 40%

Preen bought Ṁ100 NO from 52% to 42%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ27 YES at 52% (cancelled)

Bet bought Ṁ10 NO from 51% to 50%

Bet bought Ṁ30 NO from 55% to 51%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ19/Ṁ25 YES at 55% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ18/Ṁ100 YES at 53% (cancelled)

Bet bought Ṁ50 NO from 57% to 51%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ100 YES at 57% (cancelled)

jcb bought Ṁ40 NO from 61% to 56%

brwa bought Ṁ20 NO from 64% to 61%

Anton filled limit order Ṁ100/Ṁ100 YES at 40%

Anton sold Ṁ55 YES from 68% to 64%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ40/Ṁ100 YES at 68% (cancelled)

hyperion sold Ṁ369 YES from 84% to 65%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ35/Ṁ45 NO at 84% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ59/Ṁ100 NO at 90% (cancelled)

Eren Doğan bought Ṁ2,000 YES from 50% to 98.1%

rockenots bought Ṁ20 YES from 47% to 50%

rockenots bought Ṁ10 YES from 46% to 47%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ26/Ṁ29 NO at 46% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ100 NO at 49% (cancelled)

hyperion bought Ṁ200 YES from 33% to 51%