Will AI beat the best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2024?
73
1.3kṀ33kresolved Jan 6
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will any AI beat the best human competitive programmers in any major coding competition by the end of 2024?
Major coding competitions: ICPC, IOI, TopCoder tournaments, etc. I will also accept something like "solves every problem on Kattis", even if there's no particular competition to point at that it won.
Related markets:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,102 | |
| 2 | Ṁ733 | |
| 3 | Ṁ730 | |
| 4 | Ṁ485 | |
| 5 | Ṁ384 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Top score on codeforces by an AI model at the end of 2025
Will an AI model achieve superhuman ELO on Codeforces by the 31 December 2025?
35% chance
Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?
92% chance
Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026?
13% chance
Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?
95% chance
Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?
73% chance
Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?
26% chance
By 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam
competition.
87% chance